Are Russian agents trying to drive a wedge between Ukraine, Turkey and Europe with fake protests? This is suggested by internal papers that are said to come from the Russian security apparatus.
Two men with scarves pulled far over their faces obviously do not want to be recognized. In the photos that appeared on social networks a few weeks ago, both stretch their right arms in the Hitler salute. On a fence next to it hangs a banner with the Ukrainian flag and the slogan in English: “Erdogan, the earthquake is a great revenge for the Russian tourists! Alanya next!” Alanya is a popular vacation spot in Turkey for Russian tourists.
The photos are said to have been taken in Paris and allegedly show Ukrainian activists: on March 5, around 8 a.m., allegedly at the Place Saint-Pierre in the 18th arrondissement. There are numerous photos and videos of it on Facebook, Telegram, Youtube and TikTok. Other footage shows how a copy of a Turkish flag is allegedly being burned elsewhere in Paris. There are also photos of graffiti with slogans like “Stop Erdogan”, “Alanya Next” or “Stop Islam”.
In papers that WDR, NDR and “Süddeutsche Zeitung” were able to evaluate with international media partners, it is described how such a fake campaign should work. The papers were leaked to the London “Dossier Center,” a research center financed by Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
provoke Erdogan
The strategy papers are said to have come from the Russian security apparatus and were written this year. It states that five masked people should take part in such provocations, send video recordings to Turkish media and distribute them on social networks. “Accessible cities” are also listed in which such actions could achieve the desired effect: Paris, The Hague, Brussels, Frankfurt am Main.
It looks like the script for an operation apparently designed to fuel conflict and strife within NATO. The procedure is being watched with great concern in the European security community. In fact, such fake protests controlled by Moscow are said to have already taken place. The aim of the supposedly anti-Turkish or anti-Muslim protests by alleged Ukrainians is apparently to get Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to reduce support for Ukraine and to prevent Sweden from joining NATO.
Concrete topics are named in the papers. Alleged Ukrainians should show provocative reactions to the earthquake in Turkey. And thus emphasize a “destructive Nazi character” of the Ukrainian society under the leadership of Zelenskyj.
Modest ranges
In the end, however, the action in Paris was a provocation of manageable proportions. The appearance of the masked demonstrators played no role in either the French or other European media. The photos and texts distributed via social media accounts achieved modest reach. The author of the paper seems to rate the action as a success. The document almost proudly lists the links to the posts.
Western intelligence officials consider Russia’s actions described in the papers to be “absolutely plausible.” Part of the Russian disinformation strategy is to address existing conflicts such as between Turkey and Germany or between Turkey and France. One of the documents entitled “Project >Anti-Erdogan<" states that there are "currently significant tensions" between Turkey and the EU countries.
provocations against Turkey
In January, the Swedish-Danish right-wing extremist Rasmus Paludan burned a copy of the Koran not far from the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, triggering protests in numerous Muslim countries. Paludan had explained the burning action as a protest against Islam and Erdogan’s alleged attempts to influence freedom of expression in Sweden. A spokesman for the Turkish Foreign Ministry spoke of a “disgusting attack on our holy book” and called on the Swedish government to take action against Paludan.
Security circles have no indication that Russia had anything to do with Paludan’s actions. But the Russian secret service seems to have been watching developments closely. The present project paper at least describes how further tensions between the states could be brought about. It is proposed: trampling on the flag of Turkey and burning a portrait of Erdogan in the Netherlands. In addition, graffiti insulting Erdogan should be spread in all major European cities.
Payment for protests
Research by the international media suggests that traces of several actions in Europe actually lead to Russia. After that, for example, a man living in Russia, whose name is known to the editors, could be involved in the organization of protests. Not only did he share the reports of the alleged protest action in Paris.
It looks as if he was also looking for people who would pay to participate in the run-up to such campaigns, for example on Facebook. Identical signs that were used in smaller protests in different countries also speak in favor of coordination in the background. When asked, the man firmly rejected the allegations. He said his account had been hacked. Shortly after the request, his account was then deleted.
help Erdogan
Wolfgang Ischinger, a former diplomat and head of the Munich Security Conference, sees reasons for Moscow to promote such protests: Putin achieves two goals with such targeted provocations. Support for Sweden’s NATO entry could be made more difficult. At the same time, the appearance of anti-Muslim sentiment in Europe could strengthen the conservative forces in Turkey and thus increase Erdogan’s chances in the upcoming elections.
The secret documents from the US defense apparatus that have recently become public also indicate how deliberately Moscow apparently relies on controlled actors, paid demonstrators or even actors to fake political street protests. The Pentagon Leaks contains a US intelligence report on Moscow’s planned protest actions to destabilize the Republic of Moldova.
According to this, the Wagner mercenary group is said to have planned to train demonstrators with a Russian security company. According to the US secret paper, this training for the alleged protesters was originally supposed to take place in Turkey in February. But the Turkish secret service stopped it.
In addition to WDR, NDR and the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the following media were involved in this research: Dossier Center, Le Monde, Danish radio DR, Expressen, Swedish television SVT, Norwegian radio NRK.