Calculations by the RKI: High vaccination quota necessary due to delta

With regard to the delta variant, the RKI considers a high vaccination quota to be necessary in order to prevent a pronounced fourth corona wave in autumn: 85 percent of 12 to 59 year olds would have to be immunized, and even more for older people.

In the fight against the delta variant, according to calculations by the Robert Koch Institute, at least 85 percent of 12 to 59 year olds and 90 percent of seniors aged 60 and over should be fully vaccinated. “If this vaccination quota is reached in time, a pronounced 4th wave in the coming autumn / winter seems unlikely,” says the paper that has now been published.

When asked whether the vaccination goals can actually be achieved, the RKI was cautiously optimistic. In a survey of citizens between the middle of May and the beginning of June, a willingness to be vaccinated was determined that “make the target vaccination rates identified in the model appear achievable”.

38.9 percent fully vaccinated

It is now crucial to motivate the unvaccinated population to take advantage of the vaccination offer in the summer. In addition, there must be sufficient capacities to administer the vaccines and the population must continue to adhere to the basic hygiene measures. “The results show that under the assumptions made, in particular an increasing dominance of the Delta variant, the vaccination campaign should be continued with high intensity,” the authors write. It may also be necessary to reduce contacts “to a certain extent” as the number of infections increases.

So far, according to official information, 56.5 percent of people in Germany have received a first dose of vaccine, 38.9 percent are fully vaccinated. In the model scenarios of the RKI, the influence of the vaccination rate on the Covid-19 incidence and on the intensive care bed occupancy up to spring 2022 was simulated. “These scenarios are not exact prognoses, but an estimate of the influence of the measures on the infection process,” says the analysis.

Debate on penalties for truant vaccinations

A good six months after the start of corona vaccinations in Germany, some of the medical profession and politicians are currently concerned about vaccination readiness. From their ranks there are calls for more freedom for vaccinated people to create an incentive for immunization, and sanctions for those who miss a vaccination appointment without being canceled.

The federal government today rejected such penalties. The grand coalition has no plans for fines, said government spokesman Steffen Seibert. At the same time, however, he appealed for a vaccination appointment to be canceled if one could not or did not want to attend or had a vaccination appointment elsewhere.