As a famous advertisement said: let’s not miss the simple things. Thus, by not asking this Wednesday for the confidence of the Assembly, Elisabeth Borne avoids the risk of losing it immediately. Once this truism has been stated, let’s look at the figures again: the Macronist coalition occupies 250 of the 577 seats in the lower house. And even only 229 currently, because of the deputies appointed ministers and not replaced by their respective substitutes for a month. The government cannot count on many other “yeses” and to win, it needs, at least, the massive abstention of two of the three opposition blocs (Nupes, RN and LR).
For the majority, the conditions are therefore simply not met to go through this vote – which is optional. “A vote of confidence in this context would simply not make sense, believes Maud Bregeon, Renaissance-LREM deputy for Hauts-de-Seine. Trust will have to be built over time, text by text. “On the contrary, the socialist deputy Valérie Rabault estimated on LCP Monday evening that Elisabeth Borne made there” a masterful error “. For her, despite the relative majority, failure was not easy: “The majority is relative and it must take this into account, that is to say, it can put in its program proposals that do not come not by its relative majority. »
A non-event?
We will see on Wednesday whether the speech of the head of government takes this new balance of power into account. In the meantime, it is hard to see any macronist effort fundamentally changing the situation. “There is no will in the oppositions to find points of global agreement”, estimates Maud Bregeon, who recalls that Elisabeth Borne is not the first to ignore the vote of confidence. Basically, the decision of the Prime Minister is absolutely not debated in the ranks of Macronists, it is obvious. “There is inflation, the Covid-19 which is coming back, everyone rather wants to get to work”, breathes, annoyed, a collaborator of the Modem. Vote of confidence or not, it would almost be a non-event.
“Ah on the other hand, at Nupes, they want to try to make it an event! “, adds the same source. Because the left opposition does not want to miss the opportunity to get Parliament to vote on the government. If Elisabeth Borne does not change her decision, the Nupes groups will jointly file a motion of censure on Wednesday. Or, to use the lexicon of Nupes, “a motion of no confidence”, to compensate for the vote of confidence which will not take place.
The motion of censure, a good deal for Borne?
This choice of the left may not be such a bad deal for the government. Because if the Nupes insists on the parallel confidence / distrust, the rules for adopting a motion of censure are different from those of a vote of confidence. And much more difficult for the oppositions: in summary, it is necessary that at least 289 deputies and deputies vote this motion, the abstentions do not count. However, the RN and LR have already announced that it would not vote for the text of the left. “If the other groups do not vote for it, that will immediately put the focus on the fact that there are only a hundred or so deputies who voted for it. And that therefore the Nupes is far from the majority, contrary to what they try to make believe ”, thinks the close friend of the Modem quoted above.
In any case, this can prove that even if the government has only a small relative majority behind it, the oppositions are extremely divided… And offer an easy victory to Elisabeth Borne? “It’s not a question of victory or defeat, it will force each parliamentarian to wonder if he is in the opposition or the majority,” said Arthur Delaporte, PS deputy from Calvados and spokesperson for his group. Admittedly, but right and extreme right seem to resist this pressure rather well. And to send the mistigri of political blockage to the left: “You know, the French, on the ground, they tell me ”propose, fight!” (…) They are not trying to break a machine or blocks an institution, ”said Sébastien Chenu, RN deputy for the North, on Tuesday morning. The contradictory agendas of the oppositions are the best life insurance of a minority government.
