It is usually not particularly difficult to draw conclusions after an event. It is much more complicated to hit the famous nail on the head with just one sentence in advance. The deputy Ebersberg district administrator Walter Brilmayer (CSU), who opened the most recent meeting of the real estate committee in the district council with the following words, has now succeeded in this feat: “Everything is just getting more expensive.” In view of the situation in the world and the supply bottlenecks in the raw materials sector that were already in place before the Ukraine war, the district will face costs in the next few years that cannot yet be quantified. Even a calculation for the ongoing construction projects is difficult, but the really large investments have not even started yet.
The fluctuations on the world market affect the district above all in the area of its school buildings. Renovation and expansion work is currently being carried out on numerous buildings or will be carried out in the near future. Other schools have to be rebuilt in the first place, such as the district’s fifth high school in Poing. 64 million euros are estimated for its construction, the time frame until completion is five years from the start of construction. Nobody in the district office is currently assuming that it will be faster or possibly even cheaper. “We just can’t say,” Renate Ellmann, the responsible department head, answered the question from SPD district councilor Elisabeth Platzer as to whether the construction time of the Poinger school couldn’t be accelerated in some way. A local interest group had recently requested this via a petition.
The effects of the Ukraine war will be felt for a long time
However, the district’s hands are increasingly tied when it comes to managing its construction projects. “Even if the war ended tomorrow, which we would all wish for,” says Renate Ellmann, “then we would still have problems with deliveries.” According to the head of the district construction and real estate office, about 40 percent of the steel comes from Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.
In this respect, the procurement difficulties and the associated price increases and construction delays are likely to make themselves felt in the urgently needed expansion of the Kirchseeons high school. Although the school in the market town is the youngest of its kind in the district, since it was still designed for the eight-grade grammar school, it now has to be enlarged because of the return to G9. The Real Estate Committee has now commissioned a feasibility study for this – and is taking a two-pronged approach: In view of the unclear calculation, both a six-part expansion and a smaller and therefore cheaper five-part expansion are to be examined. It is not yet clear when work can begin at the school. In any case, the results of the study should be available towards the end of this year.
Due to delivery bottlenecks, the completion of the work at the Realschule Ebersberg had to be postponed by several months.
(Photo: Peter Hinz-Rosin)
By then, one of the ongoing construction projects in the school sector should have been completed: the renovation and extension of the Realschule Ebersberg. According to the project planners, around 65 percent of the work has already been completed, but the situation on the world market is also making itself felt here. Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the resulting embargoes, the cost of energy and manufactured products has skyrocketed, according to a statement by the district administration. It is therefore unclear whether the current, already increased budget of around 9.8 million euros is sufficient for the project. The planners had to correct the completion date by three months to the end of 2022, “due to significantly longer delivery times and material shortages in wood, aluminum and steel,” as it is said.
Things are similar at the Johann Comenius School in Grafing. When it comes to the southern extension of the support center, the district office is even firmly assuming that the estimated 11.7 million euros will not be enough for completion. However, no statement can currently be made about the amount of the expected additional costs, the authority writes in a statement. This coincides with the assessment of the commissioned planners. “We don’t know when the end will be reached,” said Sebastian Kuhn from KMP project control about the rising prices. In Italy, for example, factories for the production of tiles would have to close because they would no longer be able to get raw materials. In this respect, no serious statement can be made about the total costs of the construction measure. “No one can put a figure on that at the moment because we don’t know what’s going to happen next,” said Kuhn. In any case, in June 2024 – as of now – the complete conversion should be completed.
Not only the global crises are causing problems for the district
In addition to these uncertainties caused by the crisis, the district also has to deal with other unforeseen developments that also cost a lot of money. At the Markt Schwaben high school, for example, during the heavy rains of last summer it became apparent that the old roof of the school gymnasium was leaking. The result was moldy changing rooms that even had to be closed at times. After several minor repairs, the roof is now to be completely renovated. The costs for this are currently estimated at almost 400,000 euros – but if Deputy District Administrator Brilmayer is right with his initial prophecy, it should probably not stay that way in this case either.