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The federal government’s draft law on climate-friendly heating has caused quite a stir. There are also false reports circulating – for example, that all oil and gas heating systems will have to be replaced next year.
“Completely insane regulations, compulsion to purchase heat pumps, de facto ban on oil and gas heating: all of this inevitably leads to the impoverishment of the middle class because people simply can no longer afford it,” tweeted AfD co-chair Alice Weidel at the end of April . The reason for the excitement: The Draft to amend the Building Energy Act (GEG) the federal government, led by the Ministry of Construction (BMWSB) and the Ministry of Economic Affairs (BMWK). But what is actually behind the points of contention?
No obligation to replace the heating system
One of the main accusations against the draft law is that the federal government wants to generally ban oil and gas heating. But that is wrong, says Benjamin Pfluger from the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Energy IEG. Because the law only affects the installation of new heaters from 2024: “The point is that if an oil or gas heater is broken beyond repair, it can normally no longer simply be replaced by an oil or gas heater, but rather that a device or A combination of devices must be installed that are powered by at least 65 percent renewable energy.” There are also some exceptions in the draft: For example, the GEG does not apply to all types of buildings, and a hardship regulation is also provided.
The background to this is that the Federal Government has committed itselfto reduce the proportion of heating systems powered by fossil energy in the building sector. According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, more than 80 percent of heat demand is covered by burning oil and gas – before the start of the Russian war of aggression, primarily with natural gas from Russia.
According to the Federal Association of the Energy and Water Industry, 148 million tons of CO2 were generated in 2021 during heating, cooling and hot water provision in buildings. This corresponds to a share of 22 percent of energy-related CO2 emissions in Germany. The Federal Environment Agency puts fossil CO2 emissions from heat generation in private buildings at 115.15 million tons for 2021.
Against this background, according to Pfluger, the main problem is that gas heating systems, for example, have been promoted in Germany for so long. “Germany has made itself comfortable in its cozy corner of cheap Russian gas and has slept through the transformation. And that is now hitting us twice as hard,” he says. The outcry is now so great because the issue can no longer be addressed slowly, but a lot has to happen within a few years. “The way we heat is simply not sustainable,” says Pfluger. “Therefore, moving away from fossil fuel heating systems is simply unavoidable.”
The federal government therefore wants to promote and encourage the purchase of climate-friendly heating systems. A look at the heat pumps shows how far Germany lags behind in a European comparison: In Germany last year according to the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) Only 5.75 heat pumps were sold per 1,000 households, whereas in the Netherlands and France it was almost three times as many. The Scandinavian countries are once again significantly further ahead, with Finland leading the way with 69.36 heat pumps.
Manuel Ruppert, group leader for transport and energy at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), believes the change to the GEG is fundamentally “a sensible instrument”. “In recent years we have observed a very high level of inertia in the building sector when it comes to renovations.” There is definitely potential for savings in the heating sector in terms of CO2 emissions. If Germany wants to achieve its climate goals, greenhouse gas emissions would have to be reduced in all areas.
The crux of the matter is that Technology openness
Another controversial topic is the question of technological openness. Even if there is no compulsion to purchase heat pumps, as AfD leader Weidel claimed, they are assigned a “decisive” role according to the draft law – together with solar thermal energy. However, the FDP, among others, called for more openness to technology for more climate-friendly alternatives to fossil heating systems. However, from the experts’ point of view, the criticism falls short.
“I think openness to technology is wonderful,” says Jan Steinbach, managing director of the Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies (IREES). “But if the goal is that we want to become climate-neutral, then I can only move within a target system where I compare technologies that provide climate-neutral heat. And then a lot of technologies are ruled out.”
Ruppert sees it that way too. “When it comes to legislation, we first talk about the framework conditions for the next few years.” As a result, alternative heating systems that run on green hydrogen, for example, would play practically no role. “Our analyzes show that green hydrogen will still be a very scarce commodity, at least in the next few years,” says Ruppert.
In addition, other areas, such as the aviation sector or the steel sector, are much more dependent on green hydrogen in order to reduce CO2 emissions. Because there are fewer alternatives there. In addition, according to one, it is enough Study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) The production volume expected for 2035 is not even sufficient to cover demand in shipping, air traffic and chemicals. Since e-fuels are based on green hydrogen, they are also ruled out as a climate-friendly heating method, according to experts.
The problem, according to Pfluger, is that you now have to decide which technology you want to use. The infrastructure would be adapted based on this. “And that is an incredibly complex process,” says Pfluger. “And if we then prepare everything to move towards hydrogen and therefore don’t install heat pumps or expand district heating networks, we will fall on our feet if the hydrogen doesn’t work because it comes too late or is unaffordable for heating is.”
When do heat pumps pay off financially?
The experts therefore see a mix of heat pumps, district heating and solar thermal energy as the most realistic options for completing the heat transition. However, since many households are currently not covered by a district heating network, the focus is on heat pumps. “The biggest advantage of a heat pump is the efficiency and that it is available for individual buildings,” says Steinbach.
However, critics criticize the high costs of purchasing a heat pump on the one hand and operating it on the other. However, general statements about this are difficult, says Steinbach. The prices of heat pumps and their installation depend heavily on the regional providers. The same applies to the running costs, as the electricity tariffs are not uniform – in some places, for example, there are heat pump tariffs that are lower than the regular electricity price.
Still would Scenarios show that – calculated over a longer period of time – heat pumps are in most cases economical compared to pure oil or gas heating – even with the assumption that the currently high gas prices will fall again, says Steinbach. In the long term, the operating costs of a heat pump would make up for the relatively high purchase costs, as experts also expect electricity prices to fall in the future. There are also subsidies for climate-friendly heating systems.
“However, the ratio changes significantly when a heat pump is used in a poorly insulated building,” says Ruppert. “There are also very specific circumstances, for example the radiators that are already installed. It takes a relatively large amount of effort to adapt the entire system, especially in older existing buildings.” These points would then significantly reduce the overall efficiency of the heat pump. However, when comparing oil and gas heating systems, it must also be taken into account that fossil heating systems can become significantly more expensive to operate as CO2 prices rise.
Electricity mix is a decisive factor in the CO2 balance
When it comes to CO2 emissions, there is also an important unknown in the equation. How climate-friendly a heat pump ultimately is depends heavily on the electricity mix. “The CO2 balance of a heat pump depends largely on the renewable share of the electricity,” says Ruppert. “That is by far the biggest influencing factor.” The higher the proportion of renewable energies in the electricity mix, the more climate-friendly the heat pump is. However, the current German electricity mix is already sufficient for a heat pump to have a better CO2 balance in a direct comparison. Also several Studies come to the conclusion that heat pumps are already a more climate-friendly alternative for many buildings.
In addition, the federal government wants to significantly expand the share of renewable energies in the coming years, so that the CO2 balance of a heat pump will be even better in the long term. Pfluger therefore warns not to rush into buying another oil or gas heater. “I think people will be offended by this. In a few years, CO2 trading will make fossil energies such as natural gas very expensive.”
Heat transition also in Coalition agreement
By the way, the bill to amend the GEG doesn’t really come as a surprise. Already in Coalition agreement The SPD, Greens and FDP had written that by January 1, 2025, “every newly installed heating system will be operated on the basis of 65 percent renewable energy [soll]”. In March 2022, the coalition decided to bring the start forward a year “against the background of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine” in order to “end the dependence on fossil energy sources from conflict regions and achieve climate protection goals.” This was published in July 2022 BMWSB and the BMWK a first Concept paper in addition.
And there are already efforts at the EU level to replace fossil heating systems with greener methods in the long term. From 2035 onwards, new gas boilers will no longer be allowed to be installed in buildings – with the exception of gas boilers that are certified to run on biogas or hydrogen. There are also considerations to further tighten the guidelines for certain heating systems.