British Rwanda Law: Prisoners of its own populism

The controversial law on deportations to Rwanda has been passed in the British House of Commons. Prime Minister Sunak was able to avert revolt within his own ranks. But when it comes to migration policy, the conservatives remain prisoners of their own populism.

The great revolt was called off. Most of the MPs who opposed the Rwanda legislation because, in their view, the law was too lax, ultimately agreed: 320 yes votes, 276 no votes. Only 11 conservatives voted against their own government.

Including Suella Braverman. She is a member of parliament, former interior minister and right-wing figurehead for the Conservatives. She made it clear in the afternoon debate why she would vote against the bill.

“The British people are fed up. They have run out of patience. This is the last chance to get it done,” said Braverman, demanding, among other things, that the case law of the European Court of Human Rights should not apply in Great Britain. However, the government did not want to go that far.

Criticism from the opposition

Labor voted against the law. For many reasons. Too expensive: the Rwanda policy has already cost 450 million euros. MP Chris Bryant doubts whether the deportations, of which there will be only a few, will have a real deterrent effect. After all, many are embarking on a dangerous journey across the English Channel.

The government wants to declare Rwanda a safe third country with the new law. The result would be that asylum seekers whose applications were rejected would hardly be able to sue in British courts. The only problem is: Rwanda is not safe. British authorities have just granted asylum to several people. Labor MP Chris Byant made this point in the debate: “Even if a dog is in fact a dog and the courts say so, the government can say it is a cat.”

Numbers of illegal migrants are falling

It is still unclear whether the courts will actually take this law into account. In addition, after this third reading, the bill goes back to the House of Lords. The conservatives do not have a majority there. And even within the ranks of conservative peers there are critics. For example, Lord Nicholas Bourne.

He is concerned that Britain’s international reputation will suffer. And he doesn’t understand why the government is so focused on Rwanda. In his opinion, there are many other measures to limit migration and especially illegal migration, i.e. entries across the English Channel.

In 2023, around 30,000 people crossed the English Channel. Almost half of all boats are now intercepted on the French side. In 2022 there were significantly more crossings. Great Britain is also making poor progress in processing asylum applications. Experts are calling for faster processing to make returns easier. It was also helpful that the British government was able to conclude an agreement with Albania because the recognition rates were so low.

Sunak turns Government crisis away

But the Conservatives are still committed to their promise to keep reducing the numbers, which makes them prisoners of their own populism.

For Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the worst is over for now and the government crisis has been averted. But the right-wing forces in his party are unlikely to let up. This is a bad omen in an election year. The Conservatives are far behind in the polls.