If British polls are to be believed, Prime Minister Sunak will lose the next election. Will the Tories drift further to the right if they lose an election?
Even though Rishi Sunak smiles unwaveringly into the cameras at the party conference in Manchester, even from the milk foam in a coffee cup, things are currently looking bad for his party in the polls. He took over the post of Prime Minister almost a year ago. But if the British voted soon, the 43-year-old would lose his job. “The vultures are already circling Sunak,” comments The Guardian newspaper.
In his speech this Wednesday, he must spread optimism, although some are already thinking about what could happen next year after an election defeat. According to media reports, Sunak could announce in Manchester of all places that he would shorten a planned express rail line to the north of England.
The billion-dollar project has become significantly more expensive than planned. The extension from Birmingham to Manchester could be omitted. Andy Burnham, mayor of the Manchester region and member of the opposition Labor party, speaks of an “act of desperation”. More serious for Sunak are the warnings from the mayor of the West Midlands region, the Conservative Andy Street. He said the decision could damage Britain’s international reputation as a good place to invest – and indirectly threatened to resign.
Liz Truss’ little comeback
Others, however, see the move as a concession to party members who are vehemently committed to less government spending. “It’s not my money – it’s the taxpayer’s money and we should make the right decisions about these things,” Sunak told Times Radio in advance.
Almost a year ago, Sunak moved into the government headquarters in Downing Street, London, as the first Hindu in the country’s history. His predecessor Liz Truss had to resign after just a few weeks because of devastating economic policies.
The fact that Truss, of all people, presented his own economic agenda at the party conference made headlines. An hour beforehand, people were queuing in front of the hotel hall. “Who’s the queue for? Not for Liz, right?” a man asked as he passed by, preferring to go to the bar. Truss then launched into the Donald Trump-like slogan “Make Britain Grow Again” between light blue walls and cameras. She advocated tax cuts without explaining how they would be financed.
“The party is anything but united”
According to political scientist Mark Garnett, the Tories face several issues. The Conservative Party is no longer strongly divided in its stance on the European Union, as most pro-Europeans are no longer in the party or have changed their minds, explains Garnett. The British left the EU a few years ago with Brexit.
But there are other points of contention. “A significant number of Tory MPs think their party has pushed taxes too high,” says Garnett of Lancaster University. Many are satisfied with Sunak’s announcement that new cars with petrol and diesel engines will be allowed to be sold longer, until 2035. “Others are appalled that Great Britain appears to be moving away from its goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050.” Dealing with asylum seekers also causes discussions.
Garnett stressed: “The party is anything but united, but that doesn’t mean Sunak’s position is at risk.” Some have started campaigns to succeed him, but no one wants to take over before the election, which will probably be lost. But there is a fight over which direction the party will take before the election. “And Sunak is obviously prepared to move a bit to the right on some issues.”
Possible successors are further to the right
When it comes to a possible successor to Sunak, Interior Minister Suella Braverman and Economics Minister Kemi Badenoch are said to have ambitions. Braverman is known as a hardliner. For example, she wants to deport refugees without applying for asylum to Rwanda in East Africa, regardless of their actual country of origin. In her party conference speech, she criticized the British “Human Rights Act”, which enshrines human rights, as a “Criminal Rights Act”.
Political researcher Simon Usherwood from the Open University believes it is likely that the party will move further to the right if the election is lost. During the Brexit years, many moderate candidates were pushed out.
Political scientist Anand Menon from King’s College London thinks it is too early for an analysis. It is not yet possible to say whether the party will move further to the right if the election fails. This also depends on which representatives lose their mandate and which candidates then prevail in the process. According to the three researchers, the potential for voters further to the right is limited.
The British are expected to elect a new parliament in 2024 – the opposition Labor Party is currently around 20 percentage points ahead in polls. How the party wants to position itself in terms of content will likely be negotiated from Sunday. Then the Labor party conference begins in Liverpool. The party leader is Keir Starmer. You can already remember his name.