This week should actually bring some relaxation in the customs dispute over Northern Ireland. At least that is what the EU Commission hoped. Its vice-president, Maroš Šefčovič, is due to present ideas in Brussels this Wednesday on how the customs bureaucracy can be reduced for British companies. But his counterpart in London, Lord David Frost, made it clear at the weekend that it is not a relief.
Instead, the British conservative government wants to rewrite the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol, making demands that are unacceptable to Brussels. The Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney sees a pattern of the British in this: “Every time the European Union comes up with new ideas and new proposals for solving problems, they are rejected before they are published, and that is happening again this week,” he complained on Monday.
Frost’s advance indicates that London wants to escalate the dispute. The British could then suspend the unpopular protocol. This would start a lengthy dispute settlement procedure, at the end of which the EU could impose punitive tariffs. In any case, such a drama would further strain the already strained EU-UK relations – and perhaps also the fragile peace process in Northern Ireland.
It was contested protocol specially put on to protect the peace. The regulations are part of the 2019 withdrawal agreement and are intended to prevent customs officers from having to inspect trucks between the Republic of Ireland and the British Northern Ireland. After all, nationalists in Northern Ireland who advocate unification of the island could provoke violence should the barely perceptible border become visible again. The protocol therefore stipulates that the former unrest province will continue to comply with EU product rules and customs regulations despite Brexit. The logical consequence, however, is that deliveries of goods from England, Wales or Scotland to Northern Ireland must be checked. Because once trucks have left the Northern Irish ports, they can drive to the south of the island, i.e. the EU, and from there by ferry to the other member states without any further controls.
The new customs bureaucracy for deliveries from the rest of the Kingdom to Northern Ireland has already led to a shortage of goods in shops. The Northern Irish Unionists, who advocate close ties with the kingdom, also see this customs border between their province and the rest of the kingdom as a provocation. Jeffrey Donaldson, head of the unionist party DUP, is already threatening to withdraw his ministers from the Northern Irish government. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his minister in charge, Lord Frost, therefore arbitrarily extended transition periods, which save companies the full harshness of the customs regime. The Commission therefore initiated infringement proceedings, but paused it in the summer to find a negotiated solution.
London wants to get rid of the hated EU court
An important part of this solution should be the proposals presented by Commission Deputy Šefčovič on Wednesday. According to reports, the authority is suggesting, for example, that products should be labeled if they are only intended for the Northern Irish market. Then there is no longer any risk that they will end up in the Republic of Ireland – and thus in the EU internal market. These and other easements are intended to halve controls and bureaucratic burdens for deliveries to Northern Ireland.
In a speech in Lisbon on Tuesday, Lord Frost will repeat his demand that this is insufficient and that fundamental changes to the protocol are necessary, for example with regard to the role of the European Court of Justice. The government conveniently published corresponding excerpts from the manuscript on Saturday. London refuses to let the ECJ, hated by Brexit fans, monitor the protocol and suggests an independent dispute settlement. But this is out of the question for the Commission, as the Northern Ireland rules have consequences for the functioning of the EU internal market, the heart of European integration. In addition, the British Government approved the Northern Ireland Protocol in precisely this form.
In his speech, Frost will threaten that he will not have time for endless negotiations and that he will soon use Article 16 if no agreement is in sight. This article of the protocol allows the regulations to be repealed if they lead to social or economic upheaval. After a dispute has been settled, the EU can respond with punitive tariffs. In Brussels, most assume that London will take this route to escalate. The only question then is whether and how both sides can come to an agreement in the end.