Brazil facing a fateful election: stress test for democracy

Brazilians vote on their new president. In the polls, left-wing former head of state Lula da Silva is clearly ahead. However, President Bolsonaro raised doubts about the electoral system in advance.

If you go by the “Kiosk of Democracy” on the Largo do Machado square in Rio de Janeiro, then Inácio Lula da Silva has the choice in his pocket. “Lula has increased a lot in the last few days, Bolsonaro has stayed the same. Lula has increased from 30 to 50 pieces a day – that’s 20 pieces a day,” says kiosk owner Jefferson Ferreira. He sells towels in green and yellow with the face of President Jair Bolsonaro – and in red with the likeness of the ex-head of state from the left-wing Labor Party. He notes the number of items sold on a small board for everyone to see.

He calls his statistics Data-Toalha: Towel survey – based on the best-known survey institute Data-Folha, whose numbers are just as manipulated as his own survey. “There are a lot of leftists living here in the neighborhood, and of course they’re buying Lula. And the same thing is happening in the media. Everyone is now saying that Lula will win the elections. The opposite will be the case. Bolsonaro will be re-elected.”

Who trusts the numbers?

It is the key question in Brazil’s election campaign: Who trusts the numbers? According to all relevant institutes, Lula is well ahead of Bolsonaro. For months, however, he has been fueling doubts about polls, the media and the electoral system. “Look at this huge sea of ​​people in green and yellow colors. The lying survey institute Data-Folha doesn’t rule here, here you see the data of the people, here the truth rules,” said Bolsonaro on the national holiday in early September, in front of tens of thousands on Copacabana .

Distrust is sown

Should Bolsonaro suffer a defeat, then many of his supporters are convinced that there must be fraud behind it. Experts have been confirming for days: Brazil’s electronic ballot boxes are reliable. But distrust has been sown – also because Bolsonaro declared the election a fight of good against evil. “On the one hand, a person who defends families, God and the fatherland, on the other hand, Lula the greatest thief in the history of Brazil.”

“Convince those who don’t want to vote”

Lula governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010. They were golden years, the economy was booming – at the same time corruption was flourishing, not only, but also in Lula’s Labor Party. In a controversial trial, he himself was sentenced to twelve years in prison. The judgments were later annulled. Lula has always maintained his innocence. He remains the big puller for his opponents – it will be decisive whether he can get the undecided on board.

At his last appearance in Rio, he appealed to his followers: “Visit people who have doubts and talk to them about the importance of this election for our democracy. But don’t try to convert a fan from the Vasco club to Flamengo, that’s no use. You understand “We won’t be able to convince Bolsonaro fanatics. Don’t let yourself be provoked either. Convince those who don’t want to vote that our country is at stake.”

Tense climate, deadly attacks

Is there really something fundamental at stake in this election? In the event of a possible defeat by Bolsonaro, will there even be chaotic scenes like the storming of the Capitol in Washington? The climate is tense, there have even been deadly attacks.

In any case, Bolsonaro continues to add fuel to the fire. “It is necessary that we fight Lula’s gang. We will fight. And I repeat: an armed people cannot be enslaved,” he said during an appearance in the state of Sao Paulo a few days ago.

He should have settled disputes in front of the “Kiosk of Democracy,” says Jefferson, but those are exceptions. Above all, he hopes that the decision will not be made in the first round – four more weeks of campaigning would be better business for his towel survey institute.