Yes, this year is Black Friday and Cyber Monday again. And yes, Christmas is in a month. So far everything is as usual. However, things could be very different this time. For the first time, the days when there are supposedly a lot of bargains to be had could end with a minus for the dealers. In any case, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) expects one 15 percent drop in sales in Germany compared to the previous year.
The Federal Republic is thus joining a general trend in many countries: the citizens keep their money together – in view of the sharp rise in prices. In Australia, France and other countries with a similar standard of living, people are also less interested in shopping than they used to be, according to BCG. Perhaps many have also understood that the retailers on these days are primarily concerned with emptying their warehouses and that the supposed bargains are actually not bargains at all. So-called deceptive packaging should be particularly widespread this year, i.e. modified packaging with less content at the same or higher price. “Consumers should therefore be particularly vigilant about large discounts this year,” warns Annett Polaszewski-Plath, e-commerce expert at financial services provider Mollie. Consumer advocates see it the same way.
In addition, the discount days have increasingly become gateways for cybercriminals. Studies show how the number of Attacks on retailers’ online shops significantly increased on the days of “Black” or “Cyber Week”. The danger of falling for fake shops, which offer goods that they don’t even own, is said to be particularly high during this time. In this respect, the skeptical voices about the sense of the action days are increasing this year for many reasons – apart from those who consider the discount madness to be nonsense anyway and every year call for the buy-nothing day.
But it could also turn out quite differently, at least that’s what the German Retail Association (HDE) hopes and predicts. Precisely because many people have to watch their money, the two days this year are of particular importance. The HDE, which recently recorded new lows in the buying mood of the Germans month after month with its consumption barometer, is now suddenly surprisingly optimistic: by a full billion euros or sales are expected to increase by 22 percent this year on the two campaign days, to then 5.7 billion euros. The reason for the assumption: never before have so many Germans planned to spend as much money on Christmas shopping on these two days as in 2022. 43 to 55 percent of the expenditure should therefore be for gifts for Christmas.
That could still be a problem: Many warehouses are packed
So how will retailers look after the discount battle: elated or saddened to death? You don’t know shortly beforehand – which is also a characteristic of this year, which was shaped by the energy crisis, the Ukraine war and the consequences of Corona: the uncertainties are huge. Retailers don’t know what’s coming, consumers could make decisions a little more spontaneously than usual, and manufacturers must expect to be left with their goods.
In any case, many warehouses are already much fuller than in previous years. If they don’t empty, the real discounts could be yet to come, especially after Christmas. Because the goods have to go. If the warehouses don’t empty, no new goods can enter. This is already a problem for some retailers and manufacturers, and it could become even bigger. Even the world’s largest online retailer, Amazon, known for its sophisticated logistics, has already announced that Christmas sales will not be as good.
There is a mood of crisis not only in Germany, but in a number of countries around the world. Amazon’s forecast is all the more remarkable as the USA, the company’s home country, is the only one of the nine countries examined, according to BCG’s pessimistic assessment, in which consumers want to significantly increase their spending on the discount days. It must therefore be particularly gloomy elsewhere.
In Germany, on the other hand, according to a representative survey by the digital association Bitkom, almost a quarter, 24 percent, of those surveyed want it don’t use the entire “Cyber Week” at all. Other consumer surveys had previously come to similar conclusions about by Yougov or by the market researchers of the Cologne trade research institute IFH. After that, some purchases will be canceled “without replacement”..