A new parliament will be elected in Thailand tomorrow. In polls, the opposition and its charismatic candidate are clearly ahead of incumbent Prayut, who seized power years ago.
Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha walks through a park in central Bangkok in black sweatpants and a blue T-shirt. His followers shout “Uncle Tu”, Prayuth’s nickname. For the election this Sunday, the 69-year-old is mingling with the people for the first time, campaigning on the street.
The general took power in 2014. He first changed the constitution and the electoral law and then had himself officially elected Prime Minister in 2019.
This election could spell the end of Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Many of the almost 52 million eligible voters have had enough of the old generals.
Enough of the old generals
This election could mean the end of his term. In polls, his newly founded United Thai Nation Party is well behind the two major opposition parties, Pheu Thai and Move Forward. Many of the almost 52 million eligible voters have had enough of the old generals.
So does the noodle soup seller Narong Pinchareon: “The military should protect the country and the borders, but not get involved in politics. That’s not their job.” In his region, in rural northeastern Thailand, support for the opposition Pheu Thai party is particularly strong.
In the packed stadium, the top candidate of the Pheu Thai party evokes a landslide victory in order to be able to replace the head of government who came to power in a coup.
opposition party Pheu Thai leads in polls
With its top candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the party is in first place by a wide margin in many polls. The 36-year-old was heavily pregnant during the election campaign and wowed the crowd.
Two weeks before the election, she gave birth to her second child. Shortly thereafter, she got back into the election campaign. “We need a landslide victory for Pheu Thai so we can change the country quickly,” she called out to her supporters in the packed stadium.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the youngest daughter of former and controversial Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was overthrown by the military in 2006. In 2014, her aunt Yingluck met the same fate. Her family name is therefore both a curse and a blessing.
Famous, young, handsome, hard working
In any case, he is known to everyone in Thailand, says Termsak Chalermpalanupap from the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “The Shinawatra family is famous.” And the candidate is “young, can express herself well, looks good and works hard”.
She makes populist election gifts like her father. The party promises every Thai over the age of 16 10,000 baht, the equivalent of around 270 euros, in a digital wallet. They should be able to spend the money within a radius of four kilometers of their place of residence to boost the local economy. Their clientele is particularly the working class in the countryside.
election promise could drive debt to record highs
The party of current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, on the other hand, is more aimed at the middle class and voters in the south of the country. His party promises to preserve conservative values and protect the monarchy.
The economy is the main campaign issue. Many Thai households are heavily indebted. Campaign promises range from a higher minimum wage to free credit and lower energy costs. The promises are in the billions and could push government debt to a new record high while structural reforms fail to materialize, economists say.
Move Forward appeals to young city dwellers
The opposition party Move Forward is in second place in the election polls. It was disbanded after the last election and is back under a new name, stronger than before. Your election program is a threat to the conservative centers of power in Thailand.
Their top candidate, Harvard graduate Pita Limjaroenrat, is already under investigation. The party mainly attracts young people from urban areas. The young generation in particular wants change.
Reform of the monarchy is a dangerous topic
Many of them took to the streets in the summer of 2020 and demonstrated against the military and monarchy. Some of the democracy activists are running as candidates in this election, several for Move Forward. Because it is one of the few parties that clearly calls for a reform of the lese-majesté law.
Anyone in Thailand who criticizes the king faces up to 15 years in prison. Just a few days ago, a 26-year-old was sentenced to two years in prison. A 15-year-old has been in custody for about a month.
Lawyer Kunthika Nutcharut represents many of the democracy activists and understands the reluctance of the parties. “If they propose reform of the monarchy, they could be dissolved. So most opposition parties try to propose policies that support their ideals but are not too extreme, not too radical, not too far-reaching.”
Majority is not enough to prime minister deliver
The generation of up to 40-year-olds makes up around 40 percent of those eligible to vote. Many of the young democracy activists will be able to vote for the first time this weekend. They want a democracy in which the prime minister is the party that gets the most votes, not the party closest to the military.
But due to Thai electoral law, a majority in the election is not enough to appoint the prime minister. In addition to the 500 elected deputies, 250 senators choose the prime minister. This Senate was installed by the military and is loyal to it.
“In the last election, 249 of them voted for Gen Prayut. It is to be expected that most of them will again vote for a conservative candidate and not someone from the opposition Pheu Thai party,” says political scientist Termsak Chalermpalanupap. So to become Prime Minister, the winner needs a majority of 375 votes.
Height voter turnout expected
A high turnout is expected for Sunday. “Many people hope that this election will put the 2014 coup behind them. A coalition of opposition parties would be best for Thailand’s democracy,” says Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang of Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
Polling stations close at 5 p.m. local time on Sunday. The first results are expected around 10 p.m. Election observers want to publish their results simultaneously throughout the evening. Complaints about the state election commission have been mounting in recent days.
It will probably be weeks before Thais know which coalition will govern them for the next four years. The election of the prime minister is not expected to take place until August. Until then, Thailand faces turbulent times, especially if the opposition wins and the military-backed parties are sidelined.
A possible scenario would therefore be that Pheu Thai forms a coalition with one of the conservative parties. That would make another military coup less likely. However, it would not be the hoped-for breakthrough for democracy.