The Union can actually look forward to election Sunday quite calmly, as there are signs of two election victories. But the successes in Bavaria and Hesse could also bring problems for party leader Merz.
An election victory with more than 30 percent of the vote – this is no longer a given for the federal CDU. The Christian Democrats in Hesse could succeed in this on Sunday. The sister party CSU in Bavaria is also looking forward to a safe election victory, although probably not a brilliant result.
The federal CDU can actually look forward to the state elections with calm. However, the question of what the election victories mean for party leader Friedrich Merz could cloud his anticipation somewhat.
Rhine’s influence could grow
Hesse’s CDU top candidate Boris Rhein took over the office of Prime Minister from Volker Bouffier last year. This meant he could start the election campaign with an official bonus. Rhein is considered a moderate conservative in the CDU. So far, he has not attracted attention nationally with overly clear positions or open criticism of party leader Merz.
But recently he had to take a position. Merz had previously caused outrage with his statement that rejected asylum seekers in Germany were grinding their teeth. Rhein clarified: “That’s a choice of words that you wouldn’t have heard from me.” But we also have to debate migration in the middle of society and not leave it to the right-wing fringes.
If Rhine clearly wins the election in Hesse, it should strengthen his influence in the federal party. His counterparts from North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein are using their position to distance themselves from Merz and to create a more modern image of the CDU. In addition, Hendrik Wüst in North Rhine-Westphalia and Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein are in coalition with the Greens.
Who sets the direction? CDU leader Merz (left), CSU boss Söder and Hesse’s Prime Minister Rhein in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus at the end of June.
Green main opponents?
The Rhine also recently ruled Hesse together with the Greens. He speaks of a “reliable, pragmatic and trusting collaboration” for more than ten years. In fact, government work ran largely silently despite only a one-vote majority and fundamental differences. And the CDU man can clearly imagine a continuation.
That doesn’t fit with Merz’s course at the federal level. The party leader had identified the Greens as the main opponents in the federal government, as an ideologically disguised ban party. In contrast, there are examples at the state level where the CDU and the Greens govern together.
Intimate harmony between Merz and Söder
A coalition with the Greens is out of the question for Markus Söder in Bavaria. He had categorically ruled out black and green on several occasions. Söder wants to continue the “bourgeois coalition,” as he calls it, with the Free Voters. He attacked the Greens in every campaign speech. He is also largely in line with Merz in terms of content. The cooperation is “better than ever” between the CDU and CSU, emphasized Söder at the summer retreat in Andechs. Merz also confirms this during his numerous appearances in Bavaria in the traditional Janker costume.
Both also agree that a situation like 2021 will not repeat itself. At that time, Söder and CDU leader Armin Laschet fought a power struggle over the candidacy for chancellor, which Laschet won, but the federal election was lost.
Doubts about Söder’s commitment to Bavaria
Today Söder emphasizes that his place is in Bavaria. At the political morning pint in Gillamoos, he said: “As far as running for chancellor is concerned: I’m not interested in that,” which earned him a roar of laughter in the beer tent. And the CDU doesn’t really believe him in that either.
The election result on Sunday could give an indication of whether Söder will ask the question of power again. If it ends up below 37 percent, i.e. the historically poor result of 2018, the probability is likely to be lower. If the Söder-CSU does better, one door could remain open. Especially since Söder insists that the Union only decide on the candidate for chancellor after the state elections in the east. Elections will take place in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia in autumn 2024. This could also be a mood test for a possible candidate for chancellor, Merz. Feel-good results like those on this election Sunday are unlikely.