Candidates for the European elections on June 9 have been campaigning for weeks, even months. But in truth, it starts now. Because the French are interested in these elections very late, and the “useful campaign” is very short: ten days, two weeks maximum.
Seventeen days before the vote (sixteen in the overseas communities of the Atlantic), and at the dawn of this “useful campaign”, 20 minutes takes stock of the main favorites. If we are to believe the polls, seven or eight lists can hope to exceed 5% of the votes and send deputies to Brussels and Strasbourg. Where are they? And what is their goal for the remaining three weeks? Let’s go !
Jordan Bardella (RN): Stay mobilized
It is an understatement to say that Jordan Bardella, credited with 30 to 32% of voting intentions, has had a quiet campaign so far. He was even able to afford the luxury of avoiding the first seven or eight debates. We would be tempted to say that to finish well, he will have to avoid blunders. But what blunders? For months, the missteps, the errors, the inconsistencies of the RN have had no effect on the needle. Everything goes to his political formation.
Jordan Bardella’s challenge is obviously a problem for the rich: avoiding the demobilization or dispersion of an electorate who could understand that it has already been won. But a bad surprise on voting day quickly arrived: the RN experienced it in June 2021 during the regional elections, where it had a much worse result than expected.
If on June 9, Jordan Bardella comes out on top with less (or even significantly less) than 30% of the votes, this could be read as a small failure, despite a very good score in absolute terms.
Valérie Hayer (Renaissance, Modem, Horizon): Saving the furniture
Realize: you are sailing between 15 and 17% in the polls being the sole list of the entire government coalition. It’s a nightmarish campaign that the Macronists are experiencing, in an election that is nevertheless national and linked to what you have been wearing for eight years. The fact that the presidential camp chose Valérie Hayer, competent but who appears as the 12th choice on the bench, obviously does not help. As a result, today, the Hayer list is closely followed by that of the socialists.
Valérie Hayer’s challenge is to bring the Macronists back to the polls. Of course, some seem to have been seduced by Raphaël Glucksmann, but the bulk of the troops are for the moment… at home. Is the Macronist campaign calibrated to reach out to abstainers? Traditionally, its electorate, made up of executives, retirees, and higher socio-professional categories, is one of those who vote the most. Unless they return “naturally” as the vote approaches, the task will not be simple.
Raphaël Glucksmann (PS-Place publique): Don’t run out of breath
“Something is happening.” This is the favorite phrase of the socialists, still stunned by what is happening to them in this campaign, but who are not taking too many risks for fear of hurting themselves. The warm welcome in the markets, a desire to vote socialist…, they tell us: it’s sure, “something is happening”. In a few weeks, the Glucksmann list, pro-European although critical, has joined the leading pack and is now hot on the heels of the Hayer list.
Even if there is a useful vote in the announced 13 to 15% of this socialist list, it does not come by chance; as it did not happen by chance at Mélenchon in 2022. This is the result of a local, high-intensity campaign for months. Raphaël Glucksmann’s challenge is therefore to hold out until June 9. But will he still have gum in the money time ?
Manon Aubry (LFI): Getting one more vote
Manon Aubry had her European campaign stolen a bit. The choice of the LFI management to go all out on the massacres in Gaza – notably with the arrival of the Franco-Palestinian jurist Rima Hassan, who took a large part of the spotlight – marginalized the head of the list. She seems to have regained some momentum by emphasizing social issues, notably through a meeting with François Ruffin. In short, the head of the rebellious list does not give up completely. In the end, it is sailing in the same polling waters as in 2019, between 8 and 9%. But five years ago, the evening of the vote revealed an unpleasant surprise, with only 6.3% of the votes collected.
The rebellious demands for these 2024 Europeans are weak: Manon Aubry’s only challenge is to do more than in 2019. That alone and the Mélenchonists will be able to say that they are making progress. Obviously, the closer Manon Aubry is to Raphaël Glucksmann, the better it will work. But the European elections are in any case not an election for which LFI wants to bet big.
François-Xavier Bellamy (LR): Convince yourself of its usefulness
Difficult to represent the traditional French right, stripped of its votes for seven years by triumphant Macronism and the feverish far right. François-Xavier Bellamy’s campaign embodies this: he highlights that he is part of the largest and most influential group in the European Parliament, the EPP, but does not support his candidate – Ursula von der Leyen – for the post of president of the European Commission.
The challenge for François-Xavier Bellamy is significant: to convince of his usefulness in the European Parliament while he is isolated in the EPP, alongside Macronists in a central position – although diminished – and an extreme right which does not seem to pay its price. marginalization in European institutions.
Marie Toussaint (Les Ecologistes): Rally the troops (and end this campaign against employment)
In the shadow of Yannick Jadot’s more than 13% in 2019, Les Ecologists, and Marie Toussaint in the lead, undoubtedly knew that this election would be more difficult. Perhaps not to the point of having a few drops of sweat on the temple at the thought of not exceeding the fateful 5% mark. The latest Harris poll gives Marie Toussaint at 5%, others at 5.5%. These are certainly the worst polls but it is hot, hotter than the climate.
Marie Toussaint’s challenge is to convince all the voters who have gone to Raphaël Glucksmann that he is a false ally of ecology, perhaps not even really left-wing. Except that in this game, Marie Toussaint, who was “not the most opposed” to a list of union of the left with the Europeans among the Greens, will necessarily be less convincing than rebels accustomed to typing like deaf people. .
Marion Maréchal (Reconquest): Ensure the success
It’s not easy to be a far-right candidate when your neighbor is leading the polls with more than 30%. To try to differentiate themselves, Marion Maréchal and Éric Zemmour went even harder on immigration, security and the stigmatization of Muslims (among others), without moving the needle.
Marion Maréchal’s challenge is to deliver. Having elected representatives in the European Parliament for a party which does not have any parliamentarian elected under the “Reconquest” label will already be a victory. And a ticket to exist politically and in the media until the next presidential election.
Léon Deffontaines (PCF): Embodying the useful mini-vote
A few weeks ago, the head of the Communist Party list claimed to be “where he wanted to be” in the polls before the start of the campaign. Around 3.5%, its maximum until then. Except that since then, it has been closer to 2%. Let’s be clear: seeing him obtain 5% on the evening of June 9 would be a surprise.
Not that Léon Deffontaines is having a bad campaign, he is even credited with some good performances in the debates. But the Roussel version of the PCF line simply does not seem to be successful: 2.49% for Ian Brossat in the 2019 European elections, 2.28% for Fabien Roussel in the 2022 presidential election.
Léon Deffontaines’ challenge is the call for a “useful vote” so that the left has 5 more seats. Let’s call it a useful mini-vote, to allow it to exceed 5% and so that the votes cast on its list are not “useless”. Not easy when the vote for Glucksmann seems to have taken the lead in trying to beat the Macronists, or when Manon Aubry occupies the ground of the radical left.