The eastern front in the war against Ukraine is heavily contested. Is the city about to fall? A military expert sees a glimmer of hope.
Bakhmut has become the scene of the bloodiest battles in Ukraine. And the situation on the battlefield around the city, which once had 70,000 inhabitants, remains unclear. While the Ukrainian army has recently announced successes there, other reports suggest that the city in the east of the country could be on the verge of collapse. At least there seems to be a glimmer of hope: the current military action in Bakhmut could be part of a larger plan by Ukraine.
The military economist Marcus Keupp from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich sees the recent Ukrainian gains near Bakhmut not as part of the counter-offensive, but as an opportunistic action. “In Bachmut we see more the exploitation of a temporary Russian weakness,” explained Keupp on ZDF-heute. The head of the Russian mercenary group “Wagner”, Yevgeny Prigoshin, has withdrawn his fighters from the flanks. Now these in the north and south of Bakhmut would be held by poorly trained Russian soldiers.
Keupp: Counter-offensive probably in the southwest of the country
During the conversation, Keupp emphasized that Ukraine’s actions in Bakhmut could be part of the preparations for the counter-offensive that was about to begin. But this will only really start once the attacks on Russia’s logistics have been completed. “If Ukraine will make a mechanized push, then I think they will push through there to reach the Black Sea coast and Crimea,” Keupp said.
Other experts also agree with this assessment: “I would tend to interpret that Ukraine is trying to detain the Russian forces in Bakhmut to force them to stay at a certain point on the front,” said Ivan Klyszcz from the think tank ICDS in Estonia. At the same time, Ukraine could attack elsewhere. “There was panic recently in the Russian military channels about alleged Ukrainian movements to positions in Russian-controlled areas,” says Klyszcz. But these sources are “not always reliable”.
“Ukraine has launched localized counteroffensives in and around Bakhmut to push back the Russians and test defenses in the region,” said expert Lucas Webber, co-founder of the website Militant Wire. Something similar is also happening at other points on the front. “It’s hard to tell if the planned counteroffensive has actually started, but these actions suggest that Ukraine is planning something much bigger,” Webber said.
Bakhmut shortly before the fall despite Ukrainian territory gains?
Meanwhile, “Bild” reported on Thursday night that the Ukrainian city was about to fall. The “Wagner” mercenaries had managed to break through in the western part of the city in the last two days. This means that Ukraine only holds one side of the westernmost street in the city.
In its analysis, the newspaper relies, among other things, on a video by the Ukrainian army that shows the soldiers fighting for Yuvileina Street. Beyond that lay only garages and open fields to the next village called Ivanivske. Russia’s forces have reached the east side of the road and control 99 percent of Bakhmut. The task of the Ukrainian army is now only to delay the Russian advance west of Bakhmut. In addition, they wanted to encircle the “Wagner” troops on the flanks.
Oleksandr Syrskij, commander of the Ukrainian land forces, provided a first indication of this tactic. “After Bachmut, the ‘Wagner’ mercenaries crawled like rats into a mousetrap,” said the 57-year-old a few days ago during a visit to the frontline.