Assessment, responsibilities… What we know, two weeks later

The act led to international condemnation. Two weeks after the strike which hit the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza, responsibility for the shooting is still disputed between Hamas officials and Israeli officials: while Hamas accuses the Israeli army, the Israeli government points to finger a failed Islamic Jihad shot. 20 minutes takes stock of the last known elements of this evening of October 17, when, around 7 p.m., the hospital parking lot, where refugees were located, was hit by a strike.

How many victims did the strike cause?

The results still remain unclear. The Palestinian Ministry of Health, run by Hamas, announced 471 deaths on October 18, a toll which has not changed since. A memo from the American intelligence services consulted by AFP estimates the number of deaths “probably at the bottom of a range between 100 and 300”. The most recent assessment available is that of the Anglican diocese which manages the hospital, which mentioned on October 24, “hundreds of deaths and serious injuries” among the refugees who were on the hospital site.

Justin Welby, the British Archbishop of Canterbury, to whom the diocese which manages the hospital depends, refused to discuss any toll during an October 23 interview with The Times of Israel: “I have no idea how many civilians were there, I’ve heard so many different numbers. »

Do the images broadcast by Al-Jazeera show the strike?

This is one of the most widely distributed videos after the attack. Filmed at night, lasting around thirty seconds, it shows a missile rising into the sky before exploding. Five seconds later, at 6:59 p.m., the camera captured an explosion on the ground at the hospital site. The Israeli army seized these images, among other audiovisual elements, to support its assertion of responsibility for a Palestinian shot.

The Al Jazeera channel filmed the moment of the explosion live. – Al Jazeera

THE New York Times investigated on the video and concluded that the missile filmed by Al-Jazeera is not linked to the explosion at the hospital site. According to the American newspaper, the missile, launched from Israel, exploded on the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip, about three kilometers from the hospital. THE New York Times specifies that its investigation “does not answer the question of what really caused the explosion at the Arab Al-Ahli hospital, nor of who is responsible.”

An international risk consultant interviewed by 20 minutes October 19 was already cautious about these images, noting that it was difficult to establish with certainty a link between the rocket fire and the explosion observed a few seconds later. “The cause and effect link between the two is only a probability and not a certainty, something else could have happened, another weapon that we do not see on the videos or explosives that would be on the ground », underlined Stéphane Audrand.

  • What do we know about the hole visible in the hospital parking lot?

Photographed by the Reuters agency or filmed by Palestinians, this impact on the hospital parking lot “resembles the propelling charge of a weapon which would have burned and caused the fire [des voitures stationnées sur le parking] », Analyzed Stéphane Audrand.

The hole is visible in the center of the parking lot.  Cars were charred all around, while the roofs of three buildings were damaged.
The hole is visible in the center of the parking lot. Cars were charred all around, while the roofs of three buildings were damaged. – Shadi AL-TABATIBI / AFP

For the specialist, this 50 cm hole as well as the “damage with little projection of shine”, usually corresponds to the damage created by Hamas rockets, made with recovered steel “which fragments little”.

An analysis which matches that of specialists interviewed by the BBC. None of them point to formal responsibility for Hamas or Islamic Jihad, but the traces of the explosion do not seem to correspond to the damage usually caused by Israeli weapons. “While it is difficult to be certain at such an early stage, evidence suggests that the explosion was caused by a faulty rocket section which struck the parking lot and caused a fuel and propellant fire.” , writing the BBC, reporting the analysis of Justin Bronk, a specialist in aerial combat.

  • Is the hospital operating again?

Its activities have partially resumed. On October 26, Archbishop Hosam Naoum, head of the Anglican diocese of Jerusalem, posted images of caregivers in full operation.

Monday October 30, the UN denounced the “repeated evacuation orders” of hospitals in the northern Gaza Strip issued by the Israeli army. The United Nations estimates that “around 117,000 displaced people” are in the “ten hospitals still operational in Gaza City” and in the north of the Palestinian territory.

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