Do you know the butterfly effect? The beating of the wings of this insect in Brazil could, through multiple consequences, cause a typhoon in Kyoto. Less poetically, the departure of Americans on vacation during the good weather could boost prices at the pump, even here. This is the theory defended by Olivier Gantois, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries (Ufip), in The Parisian. He explains in particular the current rise in prices in France by anticipation on the “driving season” markets. Count on 1.9 euros per liter of SP95, compared to 1.77 in January. And 1.79 for unleaded, compared to 1.73 euros.
Sylvain Bersinger, economist at the Astérès firm, explains: “During the summer, Americans travel a lot within their own country, by car. » You obviously have the image of the gleaming 4×4 made in the USA… and indeed, the American “great migration” is mainly in vehicles with high consumption per kilometer.
“It’s anecdotal”
But rest assured, imagining that this will increase the liter by 1 euro extra at your gas station on the other side of the Atlantic is more of a media fantasy. “This happens every year without causing a major effect on prices. In the summer, we don’t necessarily see a peak in the price of oil, proof that it doesn’t have such a significant influence. American movements could perhaps lead to an increase of 50 cents per barrel, but this is anecdotal,” continues the economist. Before concluding: “I do not take it into account in my forecasts”.
And if there is one year where the phenomenon risks being particularly anecdotal, it is 2024. Bernard Keppenne, chief economist at CBC Banque, points to at least three much more important phenomena, which risk completely masking the “driving season”.
Much bigger problems elsewhere
First element, OPEC + decided to reduce its production by 2.2 million barrels per day since November 2023, a quota that it extended at least until June. Second, “the American economy is much more robust than expected,” continues the chief economist. However, the United States which is doing well is the Americans who consume more, and in particular more oil. “If economic forecasts estimated that this year oil supply would exceed demand, these two effects combined should result in demand exceeding supply.” And when demand is higher, prices increase.
Finally, the last point that you have probably guessed, the tensions in the Middle East, which are raising fears of price destabilization. Sylvain Bersinger adds the maritime traffic crisis in the Red Sea, the war in Ukraine and the negative global economic situation. In short, enough factors not to curse the American who is going to make the New York-Kansas round trip when it comes time to pay for your next fill-up.