As of: 04/28/2022 6:00 p.m
Ten days before the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU is clearly ahead. According to ARD pre-election poll it would come to 38 percent. CDU Prime Minister Günther is also the clear favorite in the direct election question.
The incumbent Prime Minister in Schleswig-Holstein, Daniel Günther, has long been one of the most popular state leaders in Germany. For five years he has headed the government made up of the CDU, Greens and FDP – and he has legitimate hopes that he can continue to govern in the northern state after the upcoming elections.
If the state parliament were re-elected in Schleswig-Holstein next Sunday, the CDU would get 38 percent. This means that it has reached the same value as in mid-April and could expand its position as the strongest force in the country compared to the 2017 election (32.0 percent). The SPD would come to 19 percent (-1 compared to mid-April) and would worsen compared to the last election result (27.3 percent). As in mid-April, the Greens came to 16 percent (result for 2017: 12.9 percent). The FDP reached 9 percent, as last time (result 2017: 11.5 percent). The AfD, which entered the state parliament in 2017 with 5.9 percent, would currently have 5 percent (-1 compared to mid-April) and is thus within the five percent hurdle. The South Schleswig Voters’ Association, freed from this hurdle, would also come to 5 percent (+1 compared to mid-April; result 2017: 3.3 percent). All other parties account for 8 percent.
If the people in Schleswig-Holstein voted according to the current Sunday question, the CDU could form a government with the Greens. A coalition of the CDU and FDP is also possible, albeit narrowly, given the current mood.
Poll is not a prediction of election outcome
This survey is specifically about none forecast, but about the political mood in the current week. The Sunday question measures current voting tendencies and not actual voting behavior and thus determines an intermediate status in the opinion-forming process of the electorate, which is only completed on election Sunday. For this reason, conclusions about the outcome of the election are only possible to a limited extent, because many voters commit themselves shortly before an election.
The last phase of the election campaign, in which undecided and tactical voters are addressed, is also of great importance. Currently, every sixth person entitled to vote in Schleswig-Holstein does not want to rule out a change in their current party preference by the election Sunday. For two-thirds, according to their own statements, the voting decision has already been made.
Universe: Voting population in Schleswig-Holstein
Collection method: Random telephone and online survey
Survey period: April 25-27, 2022
number of cases: 1530 respondents (998 telephone interviews and 532 online interviews)
Fault Tolerance: 2* to 3** percentage points
Implementing institute: Infratest dimap
* with a share value of 10 percent ** with a share value of 50 percent
Results are rounded to whole percentages to avoid false expectations of precision. Because for all representative surveys, fluctuation ranges must be taken into account. In the case of a survey with 1000 respondents, these amount to around three percentage points for large parties and around one point for smaller parties. In addition, the rounding error is significant for small parties. For these reasons, no party below three percent is shown in the Sunday question.
Clear official bonus for Prime Minister Günther
The fact that the CDU is currently so popular in the federal state also has to do with Prime Minister Günther. He has been able to use the last five years in office to make a name for himself in the country and among the citizens – and is going into the upcoming state elections with a corresponding bonus. Three quarters of the people in Schleswig-Holstein are satisfied with their work (74 percent; -2 to mid-April). This makes Günther not only by far the most popular state politician in Schleswig-Holstein, but also currently the most popular prime minister nationwide.
If the people of Schleswig-Holstein could elect their head of government directly, a majority (61 percent; -1) would vote for him. Daniel Günther is thus far ahead of his challengers: Monika Heinold from the Greens would still prefer one in ten as Prime Minister (10 percent) as in mid-April, while 9 percent (+1) would prefer Thomas Losse-Müller from the SPD. One in five (20 percent) cannot or will continue to commit themselves to any of the three state politicians.
CDU should lead the next government according to the wishes of the citizens
From the point of view of the citizens of Schleswig-Holstein, a CDU-led state government is by far the most popular. This is currently preferred by 46 percent of those surveyed. One in five (22 percent) would like a state government led by the SPD, while 14 percent currently favor a government led by the Greens.