ARD-GermanyTrend: Majority views relationship with China critically

With growing distrust, people stare aloud ARD Germany trend on China. In addition, many are worried about the continued rise in prices as a result of the Ukraine war.

He is the first state guest from the EU since 2019 – and that is not the only reason why Olaf Scholz’s trip to China has attracted so much international attention. Both the timing – the party conference of the Communist Party ended almost two weeks ago, at which head of state and party leader Xi Jinping had his third term approved – and the global political context make this visit a tightrope walk.

The Federal Chancellor is accompanied by a business delegation, which, with around a dozen companies, is rather small compared to previous years. It doesn’t seem the time for multi-billion dollar contracts. Because Germany now fears too much dependence on China – a concern shared by every second German.

According to current ARD Germany trend 49 percent think that the Federal Republic should reduce its economic cooperation with China. A good third (34 percent) would like to continue the cooperation to the current extent. One in ten (10 percent) would like to expand it. Basically, a clear majority of 87 percent would like the federal government to ensure that Germany becomes more economically independent of non-democratic countries.

Majority thinks Chinese participation in the port of Hamburg is wrong

China is already Germany’s most important trading partner in terms of import and export volume. The Chinese state shipping company Cosco recently focused on the planned participation in one of the four container terminals in the Port of Hamburg. Despite warnings from the relevant ministries, the Federal Chancellery stuck to it: Last week, the federal government agreed that Cosco may hold a maximum of 24.9 percent of the terminal. In doing so, Chancellor Scholz has set an example that the majority of citizens see critically: A good two-thirds of those entitled to vote (69 percent) consider this decision to be wrong. On the other hand, one in five (20 percent) finds it correct.

In the run-up to the Scholz trip, there was also massive criticism from human rights organizations. The main issues here are the oppression of the Uyghurs, the repression in Hong Kong and the threatening gestures towards Taiwan. In this context, only one in five (22 percent) agrees with this statement: “For me, when dealing with China, representing Germany’s economic interests is more important than fighting for human rights on the ground.” 68 percent disagree with this statement.

World security threatened more by Russia than by China

When asked whether China currently poses a threat to world security, 19 percent said “definitely” and 44 percent “rather yes” – a total of 63 percent. 30 percent say “rather no” or “definitely not”. For comparison: At the beginning of October, this question was also asked about Russia: At that time, 56 percent said that Russia “definitely” threatened world security and 30 percent “rather yes” – a total of 86 percent. Only 12 percent said “rather no” or “definitely not”.

At the same time, only nine percent of those eligible to vote currently see China as a partner that Germany can trust (+/-0 compared to March). For comparison: 10 percent currently consider Russia to be a trustworthy partner for Germany (+4). Almost every second person (47 percent) says this about Ukraine (-16). 55% see the US as a trustworthy partner (-5), 60% UK (+14 vs January), 84% neighbor France (+3).

Concern about inflation and escalation of the Ukraine war

The Germans are looking with increasing concern at price increases that will be noticeable as a result of the war. 66 percent are very or very concerned that prices will rise so much that they will no longer be able to pay their bills (+9 compared to October). Concern about the consequences of climate change is just as widespread: 66 percent are very or very concerned that climate change will destroy our livelihoods (-2 compared to September 2021).

The view of the corona pandemic, on the other hand, is more relaxed than before last winter: Currently, just under one in three (31 percent) is worried that the number of corona infections in Germany will rise sharply again in the coming weeks (-11 compared to . to October 2021).

However, the concern that Russia could attack other countries in Europe is stronger: currently six out of ten (61 percent) say they are worried about it. In March, 69 percent said that, so a few more people in Germany had this fear immediately after the Russian invasion. Concerns that too many people from other countries are immigrating to Germany have increased over the past year. For 53 percent of those eligible to vote, this concern is currently very high or high (+11 compared to September 2021).

Ukraine: Majority wants more diplomacy

Concerns about an escalation of the war could also be the reason why a majority of Germans do not go far enough in the German government’s diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine. 55 percent currently agree with this statement (+14 compared to June). Three out of ten respondents (31 percent) consider Germany’s diplomatic efforts to be appropriate (-12). For four percent they go too far (-4).

Ukraine asked Germany for more arms supplies this week. However, there is no majority for this among the citizens. 41 percent currently consider German arms support for Ukraine to be appropriate. For 30 percent, the German arms deliveries to Ukraine go too far, for one in five (21 percent) not far enough. The Germans also disagree on the assessment of the sanctions against Russia. For 37 percent these do not go far enough, for 31 percent they are appropriate, for 23 percent they go too far.

Satisfaction with federal government remains low

In general, the reputation of the incumbent federal government under Chancellor Scholz continues to be low: currently seven out of ten eligible voters (69 percent) are less or not at all satisfied with the work of the SPD, Greens and FDP; only 28 percent are satisfied or even very satisfied with it (-1). This means that the rating of the traffic light coalition is at a new low for its previous term of office, which began in December 2021. However, these results refer to the survey period from Monday to Wednesday – i.e. before further relief measures were decided at the federal-state meeting on Wednesday, such as the 49-euro ticket or the gas price brake.

If there were a federal election on Sunday, the SPD would currently have 19 percent – two points more than in October. It would be the second strongest force, together with the Greens: they are stable at 19 percent. The CDU/CSU are currently in first place with 28 percent. The FDP has lost another point and is currently at six percent. The AfD loses a point and would currently have 14 percent. The left would remain unchanged at five percent, all other parties unchanged at nine percent.