ARD-DeutschlandTrend: Satisfaction with Chancellor Scholz at a record low

The Germans are looking more critically than ever at the work of the traffic light coalition. The Chancellor’s reputation is declining ARD GermanyTrend to a record low. Could a Union-led government do better?

Exactly two years ago, the coalition agreement was signed by the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. But on this anniversary, Germans are criticizing the work of the traffic light government more harshly than ever: 17 percent are currently satisfied with the work of the cabinet, 82 percent are less or not at all satisfied. A similarly poor assessment of government work in the federal government dates back more than 13 years, achieved by Black and Yellow in 2010.

Only 20 percent are satisfied with Scholz

At the same time, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s reputation has suffered significantly: currently only 20 percent are satisfied with the SPD politician’s work, which is the lowest figure for a chancellor in the country that has existed since 1997 ARD GermanyTrend.

When it comes to the question of whether Scholz is acting prudently, Germans are divided: 48 percent (-16) say yes, 46 percent say no. Only 27 percent (-20) think he is up to the job of Chancellor – two thirds (68 percent) don’t think so.

23 percent (-14) see Scholz as a good crisis manager for Germany – 71 percent do not see that. And only 12 percent (-15) think that the Chancellor communicates convincingly – 84 percent don’t think so. All of these values ​​have collapsed since ARD Germany trend last asked about this in April 2022 – a few weeks after Scholz’s turnaround speech.

The work of the traffic light leaders is usually viewed critically

Not only the Chancellor’s work is currently viewed critically by citizens, but also that of many of the traffic light’s leading politicians. Only Boris Pistorius (SPD) is rated favorably by one in two (52 percent; -2).

The majority of all other members of the traffic light government surveyed are viewed critically: 38 percent (+3) are currently satisfied with the work of Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens). Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck convinces 30 percent (+1) and 27 percent (-2) are currently satisfied with the work of FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner. SPD Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is currently convincing 17 percent (-4) of those eligible to vote and only 13 percent (-2) are currently satisfied with FDP Transport Minister Volker Wissing.

Opposition leader Friedrich Merz, on the other hand, continues to improve in the population rating. With 32 percent (+3), the CDU politician is in third place among the politicians surveyed this month, behind Boris Pistorius and Annalena Baerbock.

FDP on Sunday question at 4 percent

This fundamental dissatisfaction with the federal government is also reflected in the Sunday question: If there were a federal election on Sunday, the SPD would get 14 percent (-2 compared to November 2023). The Union would gain two percentage points compared to the previous month and would be the strongest force with 32 percent. It is the Union’s highest value since March 2021. The Greens would be at 15 percent (+1), the FDP would remain unchanged at 4 percent and therefore below the mandate threshold.

The AfD would lose one percentage point, but would still be in second place with 21 percent. The Left would be at 3 percent (-2) and therefore below the mandate threshold. All other parties currently account for 11 percent, including the Free Voters with 3 percent.

Could the Union do better?

When looking critically at the government, the question arises: Would a CDU/CSU-led federal government solve the upcoming tasks and problems in Germany better than the current federal government?

Every second eligible voter (52 percent; -1 compared to August 2023) does not expect any major change from this: the government’s work will then be “similarly good” or “similarly bad”. Almost one in four people (24 percent; +5) believe that a Union-led federal government can provide a better solution to current problems. 17 percent (-4) expect worse results from a Union-led government. The majority of Union supporters are now convinced that the problems would be tackled under the leadership of the Union (60 percent). There is still skepticism among supporters of other parties about this.

How to deal with the budget gap?

Since the Federal Constitutional Court declared the transfer of Corona funds to the Climate and Transformation Fund unconstitutional in mid-November, traffic light politicians have been struggling to find a solution to the budget crisis. This ruling forces the federal government to issue a supplementary budget for 2023; the adoption of the regular budget for 2024 has been postponed.

Looking ahead to the coming year, almost half of those eligible to vote (47 percent) are of the opinion that the federal government should most likely respond with savings in spending, projects and investments. 35 percent would most likely support suspending the debt brake by declaring a renewed emergency. Only 8 percent would support increasing taxes and duties. While a suspension of the debt brake is popular among party supporters of the SPD (59 percent) and Greens (55 percent), supporters of the CDU/CSU (58 percent) and AfD (69 percent) favor austerity measures.

Majority for savings on citizens’ money and aid to Ukraine

When asked which of the currently discussed options the federal government should most likely make savings on, 64 percent were in favor of savings on citizens’ money. A majority of respondents (54 percent) are also open to cuts in military aid to Ukraine.

Only four out of ten respondents (41 percent) support savings in the climate transformation of the economy and only 27 percent see potential for savings in the planned basic child support. In each of these two options, a majority is against savings (55 percent and 69 percent).

Hardly any confidence in the work of the UN Climate Change Conference

The 28th UN climate conference, COP28, is currently taking place. Representatives from more than 200 countries are negotiating improvements in climate protection in Dubai. Germans’ confidence in the climate conference is limited: 86 percent are not or not at all convinced that the international community can deal with the problems resulting from climate change. Only one in ten respondents (10 percent, -4 compared to November 2021) trusts the international community to carry out this task.

And how quickly should things happen in Germany so that the country can achieve its climate goals? The picture here is inconsistent: a relative majority of 38 percent say that the changes in climate protection in Germany are going too slowly for them (+2 compared to July 2023). One in four (25 percent) believe that the pace of change is just right (+5). For 28 percent, the pace of change in terms of climate protection is too fast (-5).

The majority sees industry as having a duty to protect climate change

With regard to the respondents’ personal attitudes towards climate protection, seven out of ten respondents (70 percent) stated that climate change cannot be stopped without restrictions on our lifestyle (-15 compared to May 2019). 62 percent agree with the statement that Germany is already doing a lot to combat climate change and that other countries should therefore do more.

61 percent are of the opinion that industry rather than individual consumers are responsible for climate protection (-7), 60 percent agree with the statement that too much fear is being stirred up in the debate about climate policy (+7).

A minority of 36 percent are of the opinion that the ecological costs of products, goods and services should be incorporated more heavily into the price, for example in the form of a CO2 tax (-6 compared to November 2022). A majority of 58 percent are against it. Only three out of ten respondents (30 percent) are of the opinion that we should forego economic growth in order to stop climate change (-16 compared to November 2022), almost two thirds (64 percent) do not agree with this statement.