New year, old crises: The majority of Germans are calculating out loud ARD GermanyTrend Even in 2024 there will be no end to the war in Ukraine. However, when it comes to financial aid for the country, opinions are divided.
Germans have little hope that the war in Ukraine will end this year: only 9 percent believe that this is likely this year – significantly less than at the beginning of last year, when 32 percent still expressed this hope. An overwhelming majority (87 percent) currently do not believe that the war will end in 2024. This is what a representative survey by infratest dimap found ARD GermanyTrend among 1,321 eligible voters from Tuesday to Wednesday of this week.
The majority of Germans are of the opinion that Ukraine must first and foremost decide when to engage in negotiations with Russia (75 percent, +2 compared to March 2023). Ukraine has specified the conditions for negotiations. Among other things, it calls for the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
Fewer people in Germany now believe that this condition is met. 44 percent (+9) believe that in order to end the war it is necessary for Ukraine to cede certain areas to Russia. 43 percent see it differently.
Narrow majority for Ukraine joining the EU
Integrating Ukraine into political alliances is only realistic after the end of the war. In December, the EU decided at its summit in Brussels that at least accession negotiations with Ukraine could begin.
53 percent of Germans believe that Ukraine should be admitted to the EU in the long term is correct (-5 compared to February 2023), while 39 percent are against it. There is slightly less support for Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, which currently appears less realistic: 44 percent (-7) are in favor of Ukraine joining the defense alliance, 43 percent are against it.
Divided opinions regarding financial aid
Ukraine has been experiencing massive Russian attacks with missiles and drones for several days, prompting Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to call on Kiev’s allies to deliver weapons more quickly. The Ukrainian army needs additional air defense systems, all kinds of combat drones and more missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers.
German citizens are divided on this issue: 36 percent say that the current support for Ukraine with weapons goes too far for them, 35 percent think it is appropriate and 21 percent say the arms deliveries do not go far enough.
In addition to weapons, Ukraine needs money in the war against Russia. After the USA, Germany is the country that provides Ukraine with the most financial support. However, support for this among the German population is waning. 41 percent think Germany’s financial support for Ukraine is going too far (+21 compared to the end of April 2022). 40 percent consider the support to be appropriate (-19), only 12 percent of those surveyed think it does not go far enough (-2).
As the largest donor country, the USA released its last military aid for Ukraine in December worth 250 million US dollars. The release of further funds is currently blocked by a dispute between Republicans and Democrats in the US Parliament. The vast majority of Germans (80 percent) consider it unlikely that Germany and the other EU states would be able to replace any lack of US aid. Only 12 percent trust Germany and the other EU states to be able to provide compensation.
Disagreement about the durability of the traffic light
Germans disagree about whether the traffic light government will remain in place in 2024: Almost half (49 percent) think it is more likely that the federal government will consist of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. However, 41 percent assume that the coalition will break up this year.
Only 17 percent of those eligible to vote are still satisfied with the work of the federal government. A clear majority (82 percent) are less or not at all satisfied with the coalition’s work. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s satisfaction level reaches another record low. Only 19 percent of those surveyed (-1 compared to December 2023) said they were satisfied with the SPD politician’s work. This is the lowest value for a Federal Chancellor in the country that has existed since 1997 ARD GermanyTrend.
If there were a federal election on Sunday, the SPD would still get 14 percent. The Union lost one percentage point compared to the previous month, but would still be the strongest force at 31 percent. The Greens would be at 13 percent (-2), the FDP would be at 5 percent (+1). The AfD would gain one percentage point and would still be in second place with 22 percent. The Left would get 4 percent (+1) and would therefore be below the mandate threshold. All other parties currently account for 11 percent, including the Free Voters with 3 percent.
How do Germans look to 2024?
After the turn of the year, a majority of Germans are generally confident: more than half (55 percent) believe that 2024 will be a rather good year for them personally. Almost a third (32 percent) are of the opinion that the new year will be a rather bad one for them. People with a higher monthly income are somewhat more confident about the new year.
The view of the conditions in Germany is much more pessimistic: eight out of ten respondents (83 percent, +2 compared to September 2023) are rather worried about the current conditions in the country and 13 percent (-1) are confident. All party supporters are predominantly worried, but with degrees: supporters of the Greens (58 percent) and the SPD (62 percent) express the least dissatisfaction; while supporters of the FDP (85 percent), the Union (90 percent) and the AfD (100 percent) are significantly more worried.
Only 23 percent believe that an end to the war in the Middle East in 2024 is likely. 32 percent believe it is likely that the prices for energy and food will rise less sharply compared to the previous year. In addition, a clear majority (74 percent) assume that there will be more extreme weather events in 2024 than last year. The vast majority (82 percent) consider a decline in migration to Germany to be unlikely.
Investigation facility
Population: Eligible voters in Germany
Collection method: Random-based telephone and online survey (of which 60 percent landline, 40 percent mobile)
Survey period: January 2nd – 3rd, 2024
Number of cases: 1,321 respondents (787 telephone interviews and 534 online interviews)
Weighting: according to sociodemographic characteristics and recall of voting behavior
Range of fluctuation: 2 percentage points for a share value of 10 percent
3 percentage points for a share value of 50 percent
Implementing institute: infratest dimap
Results are rounded to whole percentages to avoid false expectations of precision. For all representative surveys, fluctuation ranges must be taken into account. In the case of a survey with 1,000 respondents, these amount to around three percentage points for large parties and around one point for smaller parties. In addition, the rounding error is significant for small parties. For these reasons, no party is shown below three percent in the Sunday question.
Sabine Henkel, ARD Berlin, tagesschau, January 4th, 2024 6:02 p.m