ARD-DeutschlandTrend: Majority against “Taurus” delivery to Kiev

In the dispute over the delivery of “Taurus” cruise missiles to Ukraine, Chancellor Scholz insists on his “no” – and is loud ARD GermanyTrend the majority of Germans behind them.

There has been debate about the Taurus cruise missile for months. Ukraine has long wanted to get this weapon from Germany. “Taurus” missiles have a range of 500 kilometers and would be very helpful for Ukraine in the war against Russia. At the same time, targets in Russia could also be hit, although Ukraine has assured that it does not want to attack such targets.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejects such a delivery because he fears that it could drag Germany into war. This means he has the majority of the population behind him: 61 percent of those surveyed are currently against Germany supplying “Taurus” cruise missiles to Ukraine. That’s nine points more compared to ARD GermanyTrend in the Morning magazine from August 2023. Only 29 percent (-7) are in favor of such a delivery of weapons.

Only the supporters of the Greens and the FDP are in favor of handing over “Taurus” cruise missiles to Ukraine: 53 percent of the Greens’ supporters are in favor of the delivery, and 50 percent of the FDP’s supporters. Among the other party supporters, the rejection of the “Taurus” deliveries predominates – almost half of the Union supporters (52 percent) also position themselves against such a delivery. It is therefore questionable how one’s own supporters assess the announcement by the Union parliamentary group, which wants to bring the delivery of Taurus back to the Bundestag for a vote next week.

Worry about more Eavesdropping attacks of Russia

The “Taurus” wiretapping affair has ensured that there has been increased discussion about security policy issues in recent days. A week ago, Russia published a recorded conference call between four high-ranking officers in the German Air Force. The majority of German citizens (70 percent) fear that Germany will increasingly become the target of Russian secret service actions. In addition, a majority sees Germany as unprepared for Russian espionage attempts (67 percent). And a majority is also concerned that Germany could be drawn directly into the war (62 percent, +3 compared to February 2023).

Majority for NATO’s two percent target

The traffic light coalition wants to fulfill the NATO states’ commitment to permanently spend at least two percent of economic output on defense. This is significantly more than before and is made possible, among other things, by the special fund of over 100 billion euros for the Bundeswehr. Three out of four German citizens (74 percent) believe this increase in defense spending is correct; 20 percent think they are wrong.

People are less agreed on the question of how these additional expenses should be financed permanently: 43 percent prefer savings in other areas, 34 percent prefer the suspension of the debt brake and taking out loans. Only nine percent of those eligible to vote are in favor of raising taxes and fees to refinance higher defense spending. While savings are favored by a relative majority in the ranks of the AfD, FDP and Union, the supporters of the SPD, Greens and BSW tend to prefer expanding the debt brake or taking out loans.

Doubts about Israel’s actions have grown

After the terrorist attack by the Islamist Hamas on October 7th, there is war between Israel and Hamas. Aid organizations report catastrophic conditions for the Palestinian civilian population in the Gaza Strip. A ceasefire is being negotiated again and again, especially with a view to the beginning of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. Currently, one in two people (50 percent) think that Israel’s military response to Hamas’ terrorist attacks goes too far; that is nine points more compared to November 2023. Only 28 percent currently consider it appropriate (-7); five percent (-3) think it doesn’t go far enough.

From the German perspective, the priority is to protect civilians as much as possible. 23 percent (-2) are of the opinion that Israeli military actions against Hamas are justified even if the Palestinian civilian population is also affected. A majority of 61 percent believe such attacks are unjustified.

The Germans continue to absolve none of the conflict parties from responsibility for the current situation of the civilian population in the Gaza Strip. Around three quarters of those eligible to vote see the terrorist organization Hamas as fully (39; -6) or rather (34, +2) responsible for the conditions on site. However, at 62 percent, a growing number (+5 percentage points) also assign Israel responsibility for this. Currently, 19 percent (+4) see Israel as fully responsible for the situation of the civilian population in Gaza and 43 percent (+1) see it as somewhat responsible.

Little movement on the Sunday question

If there were a federal election on Sunday, the SPD would get 16 percent, unchanged from the previous month. The Union lost one percentage point compared to the previous month, but would still be the strongest force at 29 percent. The Greens would be stable at 14 percent, the FDP would be at five percent (+1). The AfD would still be the second strongest party with an unchanged 19 percent. The Left would remain at three percent and would therefore be below the mandate threshold. With six percent (+1), the newly founded BSW party would have a chance of entering parliament.

All other parties together currently have eight percent (-1), including no other party with a vote share of at least three percent.

EPP candidate von der Leyen with moderate support

Ursula von der Leyen is now officially the candidate of the European party family EPP for a second term as President of the EU Commission. She succeeded Jean-Claude Juncker in this position in 2019. The CDU politician will probably also be supported by the traffic light government for another term in office if the Christian Democrats become the strongest political force in the EU again in the European elections in June.

In Germany, the politician’s work in Brussels convinced a good third of German citizens (36 percent, -2 compared to June 2023). Half (53 percent, +/- 0) are dissatisfied. Apart from the Union supporters, the Commission President also receives predominantly favorable reviews from supporters of the Greens and SPD. Massive criticism, however, predominates, particularly among AfD and BSW supporters.