Nationwide, the AfD currently appears to be on the rise. Thereby have loud GermanyTrend extra Strongly right-wing or right-wing extremist attitudes have not increased since 2016. The reason for the AfD’s strength lies elsewhere.
Distinctly right-wing and right-wing extremist attitudes have not been more or less widespread in the Federal Republic since 2016. The AfD’s binding power in this milieu has increased significantly and its supporters feel little deterred by right-wing extremist tendencies.
The survey makes it clear that German society is in a state of great concern. 81 percent are currently worried about the future, only 14 percent are confident. Comparable values have so far only been measured between 2003 and 2005, during a phase of high unemployment. These are results of one GermanyTrend extrathe Infratest dimap on behalf of WDR carried out and which delves deeper into the attitudes and beliefs of the AfD electorate.
No changes since 2016
Right-wing extremist and very right-wing beliefs have not increased in this mood, but are – within the limits of the statistical deviation – exactly at the level of 2016. To measure personal political attitudes, respondents were asked six scientifically recognized standard questions, for example about their attitude towards a dictatorship or National Socialism or xenophobia. Questions and evaluation are identical to 2016.
According to this study, eight percent of those surveyed can be classified as right-wing extremist (nine percent in 2016), and another 14 percent can be classified as right-wing (13 percent in 2016). The complete rejection of all statements presented is 55 percent (+3), slightly higher than in 2016.
The AfD has great binding power
While the size of the right-wing political milieu has not changed, the AfD is much more committed to it than before. Of the party’s supporters, 27 percent can be classified as right-wing extremist, another 25 percent as distinctly right-wing. On the one hand, this is a significant increase compared to 2016 (then 20 right-wing extremists/24 percent strongly right-wing).
Above all, however, according to figures from the Sonntagsfrage, this following has increased nationwide from twelve to 22 percent during this time. The AfD’s binding power in this milieu has more than doubled; it now includes a large proportion of people with a right-wing worldview in its electorate.
This group has a completely different perception of the AfD’s political goals than the majority of the population. Almost three quarters of those surveyed consider the AfD to be a right-wing extremist party – but only 18 percent of their electorate share this assessment. Apparently, this classification by various constitutional protection authorities does not play a significant role in the election decision. 80 percent of AfD supporters say they “do not care that the AfD is partly considered right-wing extremist, as long as it addresses the right issues.”
AfD creates Voter potential largely out
The AfD is currently the only party that is largely exploiting its voter potential. 24 percent of Germans can currently fundamentally imagine voting for the AfD in the future, 22 percent of those who choose a party in the Sunday question currently declare their intention to vote for the AfD.
For comparison: The CDU/CSU has the greatest potential with 52 percent of the electorate, but only 28 percent currently want to vote for them. More than half of AfD supporters (55 percent) can imagine voting for another Bundestag party in the future; the proportion is slightly higher in the West and lower in the East. The bond with the AfD is stronger there.
Once again, the study shows the structural differences in the East and West German public. It’s not just voting behavior that differs; according to surveys, the AfD is currently the strongest force in several eastern German states. Accordingly, right-wing attitudes are more widespread than in the West. Twelve percent of those surveyed can be classified as right-wing extremist (seven in the West) and another 20 percent as distinctly right-wing (13 in the West).
discontent with asylum policy
The decisive motive of AfD voters is concern and dissatisfaction with key social developments, especially the increased immigration of refugees and asylum seekers. A critical attitude also predominates in the general population, but it is particularly pronounced as a central political motive among AfD supporters.
A total of 67 percent of those surveyed currently consider the admission of immigrants to be “probably not” or “definitely bearable”; among AfD voters the figure is 95 percent. Beyond the current situation, 48 percent of those surveyed share the concern that “too many foreigners are coming to Germany”, while 85 percent of AfD supporters share the concern.
Feeling of paternalism
Another strong motive is the feeling of being patronized. Two thirds of all respondents (67 percent) have the perception that “on certain topics” “you are excluded today if you express your opinion”; among AfD supporters this figure is 96 percent. The situation is similar with the fear that crime will “increase sharply in the future”. 65 percent of all respondents have this concern, but 96 percent of those who want to vote for AfD.
The survey shows: The reason for the AfD’s strength in current surveys is not, as is often assumed, the spread of right-wing or right-wing extremist attitudes. Rather, the analysis makes two developments clear: On the one hand, the AfD is increasingly binding the already existing right-wing milieus. But: Almost half of the AfD electorate cannot be assigned to these milieus. This part remains open to other political offers.
What is even more important, however, is that the AfD successfully addresses issues that concern and concern a clear majority of the population – and for which many people apparently find other parties too little understanding.