anniversary
A year of turning point: Scholz takes stock in the Bundestag
Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) gives his speech on the “turning point” in the Bundestag on February 27th, 2022. photo
© Kay Nietfeld/dpa
“We are experiencing a turning point.” A year ago, the chancellor heralded a paradigm shift in security policy. Unlike then, he probably won’t get any more applause from the opposition today.
A good year after the Russian attack on Ukraine and the associated reorientation of German security policy, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will take stock today in the Bundestag. 25 minutes are scheduled for his government statement entitled “One year of turning point”, followed by a 90-minute debate.
On February 27, 2022 – three days after the start of the war – Scholz announced a 100 billion program to upgrade the Bundeswehr in a special session of the Bundestag. Already on the eve of his government statement at the time, the first arms deliveries to Ukraine for the defense against Russia had been decided – breaking a taboo.
“We are experiencing a turning point. That means: The world after is no longer the same as the world before,” Scholz said at the time international security policy. But what happened to the Chancellor’s announcements?
Military aid worth 2.6 billion euros
First it was bazookas and Stinger missiles. Today it is armored personnel carriers and battle tanks. German arms deliveries to Ukraine have been increased step by step over the past twelve months. In the meantime, Germany has provided military aid worth 2.6 billion euros to Ukraine.
In absolute figures, Germany is far behind the USA, but is roughly the same as Great Britain as the number two donor country in the world. According to statistics from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), if military aid is measured in terms of economic strength, it only ranks 18th among the 30 NATO countries. The three Baltic states and Poland – all direct neighbors of Russia – are far ahead.
In 2022 not a cent of the 100 billion Bundeswehr will be spent
A year ago, Scholz received a lot of applause for his speech from the ranks of the CDU and CSU for his announcement that the Bundeswehr would be modernized with a special fund of 100 billion euros. This will certainly not be repeated in his balance sheet speech today.
The largest opposition group has already vented its displeasure in the past few days. “A year of change has turned into a year of wasting time,” says Alexander Dobrindt, head of the CSU deputy in the Bundestag.
The modernization of the Bundeswehr is not progressing fast enough for many others either. According to the Ministry of Finance, not a cent of the 100 billion euro special fund has yet been spent in 2022. However, the Ministry of Defense points out that around 30 billion euros have already been planned. “We are bound by the regulations and laws and are only allowed to pay when the service has been rendered,” it says. Among other things, the full outfitting of the soldiers with clothing, the arming of drones and the procurement of the US F-35 stealth jets will be financed with the money already planned.
There is a heated debate about whether and to what extent the regular defense budget needs to be significantly increased again. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) considers this necessary, Greens and parts of the SPD see it differently.
1.44 instead of 2.0 percent of GDP for defense
The increase will also depend on whether Scholz will be able to keep the key promise he made to NATO partners in his speech at the turn of the century in the foreseeable future. “From now on, we will invest more than two percent of gross domestic product in our defense every year,” he said a year ago.
In 2022, according to official NATO statistics, the proportion was only 1.44 percent. According to internal calculations by the federal government, 1.6 percent is expected for the current year. In order to reach the two percent, the defense budget would have to be increased by 15 to 65 billion euros.