Analyst on Ukraine: “War is not won through defense alone”

Ukraine has repelled Russia’s most recent attack attempts, says military analyst Beleskov. But the lack of ammunition forces people to be on the defensive – and creates an atmosphere that makes additional recruitment more difficult.

tagesschau.de: The Russian forces are advancing on the front. How do you assess the current military situation?

Mykola Beleskov: Russia has the initiative. Russia is trying to advance on several sectors of the front. We saw the situation at Avdijwka.

tagesschau.de: After months of heavy fighting, Ukrainian troops withdrew from the completely destroyed city in February.

Beleskov: Now we see the situation near Chasiv Yar. At the same time, this advance does not have the character of a classic offensive. It’s a very slow advance. This costs the Russian Federation a lot.

Despite a very serious shortage of classical rocket and artillery weapons, Ukraine is holding the front and inflicting damage on Russia. The Ukrainian president’s assessment that he has succeeded in fending off new Russian attacks is therefore justified.

“Another trench warfare”

tagesschau.de: What phase is this war in?

Beleskov: At the moment we see that what began in November 2023, namely attempts to attack on several sectors of the front at the same time, did not bring Russia the expected result. Everything turns into a trench war again.

The losses are terrible. Let us recall that Russia suffered up to 17,000 dead and more than 20,000 wounded near Avdiivka.

“Ukraine doesn’t have the luxury of choice right now”

tagesschau.de: What are the reasons why Russia was able to take the initiative?

Beleskov: Because it is a war of attrition. A war of attrition is a war of resources. This means that those who have more resources have the opportunity to choose. Ukraine doesn’t have the luxury of choice right now. We went on defense. This is the form of war we are waging now.

Russia can choose, it can defend itself, it can attack. The Russians decided to attack because they have more ammunition for missile systems and artillery. In addition, as we see, they are increasingly using guided missiles of various types. According to official figures, more than 4,000 guided missiles were deployed along the front line in the first quarter of this year alone.

“It’s a kind of improvisation”

tagesschau.de: Russia is massively attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. What does Ukraine need particularly urgently at the moment?

Beleskov: For any strategy, whether defensive or offensive, we need more support in two crucial areas. The first is air and missile defense. Because we see how Russia is actively using classic air strike capabilities, how they are improvising with aerial bombs, modernizing them, how they have increased the production of missile weapons – unfortunately. That means we need anti-aircraft defense – but anti-aircraft defense that covers both the country and the ground group that is fighting.

The second area is ammunition for the rocket forces and artillery. Because it is difficult to use classic manned aircraft in large numbers. For both the Russians and us it is now a missile and artillery war. We need ammunition. Of course, we have now compensated for this shortage by using kamikaze drones with FPV technology and various airdrops.

tagesschau.de: So through the creative use of drones that are equipped with an explosive device and controlled remotely using camera technology.

Beleskov: But this is a kind of improvisation, it cannot be a complete replacement. Especially when Russia has both classic rocket and artillery weapons as well as FPV drones. As we can see, the international initiatives are aimed at air defense, missile defense and rocket and artillery weapons.

Modernized Glide Bombs and a Dilemma

tagesschau.de: They have modernized aerial bombs addressed. What makes Russian glide bombs so dangerous?

Beleskov: This is one of the examples of adaptation on the battlefield. When the Russians realized they couldn’t use aerial bombs, they decided to modernize their aerial bombs. Although they are not yet modern American or French ammunition, they are still a step further. Compared to conventional aerial bombs, the range increases to at least forty kilometers when a specific control and correction module is added during the flight.

This allows the Russians to operate beyond the range of most Ukrainian air defense systems, giving them the opportunity to attack. And that’s a very big problem because we can’t shoot this ammunition.

tagesschau.de: So Ukraine can’t protect itself against this?

Beleskov: The most we can do is shoot down the delivery systems. But to shoot down carrier systems, we need anti-aircraft systems with a range of more than 50 kilometers. This is in fact just a SAMP/T or “Patriot” type system that we only have in limited numbers. This is one of the main problems.

tagesschau.de: According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine needs 25 “Patriot” systems to protect its own airspace against Russian missile attacks. Ukraine currently has to decide every day what it will protect.

Beleskov: The central dilemma is – and we are in Kiev right now: Do you protect the big cities or the actual ground troops? And Russia is unfortunately exploiting this dilemma against Ukraine.

“Need no fewer than 200,000 new soldiers”

tagesschau.de: Ukraine not only lacks weapons, but also soldiers. The draft age was lowered from 27 to 25 years. How many new men does the army need?

Beleskov: The Russians are moving in 30,000 to 40,000 every month. Of course, their losses are much higher, but even if we assume, for example, half of that, 15,000 to 20,000, then we have to assume at least 200,000 people.

These are rough estimates if we look at the situation from the other side and take into account the different philosophies of warfare. So, maybe the Ukrainian army doesn’t need 500,000, but definitely not less than 200,000 new soldiers.

“More ammunition – more recruitment”

tagesschau.de: Mobilization is a problem. What do you think the new law that is currently being worked on needs to achieve?

Beleskov: There are four key factors. These are questions of training, supply, management and possible demobilization. If the government does nothing to improve these problems, simply lowering the age limit will not be enough.

People also understand that we have a serious shortage of heavy weapons and ammunition. And they understand that they have to compensate for this with their lives and their health. This makes it more difficult to attract people. So if our partners want to see progress in mobilization, they must understand that the more ammunition and heavy weapons Ukraine has, the easier it will be to recruit people into the security and defense forces.

New call for “Taurus” missiles

tagesschau.de: Germany supports Ukraine more than any other country in the EU. In which areas do you think Germany can do more?

Beleskov: The positive image that exists here of Germany and the Germans is somewhat clouded by the decision of one person, the Federal Chancellor. Unfortunately that’s how it is. For example, we estimate the supply of various anti-aircraft systems, such as “Gepard”, IRIS-T, “Patriot” and the associated ammunition. But the war is not won by defense alone. Sooner or later, the “Taurus” cruise missiles will have to be delivered for a successful defense.

Otherwise, the announced plans for the production of ammunition, in principle, look quite convincing. The fact that up to eight billion euros will be spent on aid this year is also a big plus. What we must remember is that wars are not won through defense alone. And even to stabilize the front line, you have to strike at a certain depth. And for this you need appropriate rockets with a range of 200 or more kilometers.

The interview was conducted by Vassili Golod, ARD Kyiv