As of: 09/28/2021 10:56 a.m.
The upward trend in oil prices continues. A barrel of Brent North Sea oil costs more than $ 80 for the first time in three years. The consequences of this development can be clearly felt at the petrol stations.
The oil price continues to climb across the board. A barrel (159 liters) of Brent North Sea oil cost more than $ 80 for the first time in three years, up to $ 80.74 in the morning. US WTI oil peaked at $ 76.67. That was around two percent more than the day before. Both prices refer to deliveries that are scheduled for November.
The US investment bank Goldman Sachs, among others, provides explanations for the current development. “The current supply deficit is higher than we had expected,” wrote the bank’s analysts. In addition, fuel demand is recovering faster than expected from the consequences of the spread of the delta variant of the corona virus. Market observers therefore raised the forecast for the further development of the price of Brent oil by the end of the year by ten dollars to 90 dollars a barrel.
Promotion lags behind demand
It is true that the oil network Opec + has been gradually expanding its production for several months. However, there have recently been weather-related funding shortfalls, especially in the USA, which we have not yet been able to fully make up for. The sluggish recovery of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico after cyclone “Ida” is causing stocks to melt, write analysts at ANZ Bank.
In addition, according to insiders, some producing countries of the Opec cartel and their partners are currently having difficulties in ramping up production in line with demand. Among other things, this affects Angola, Nigeria and Kazakhstan. The reasons given there are too low investments in recent years and major maintenance work that had been postponed due to the pandemic.
Natural gas price rally
The upward trend in the oil price is flanked by the development in the gas price, although US producers want to expand their supply considerably. The wholesale prices for natural gas have been skyrocketing for months, probably also because Russia is currently rather hesitant to deliver. Therefore, according to experts, the attractiveness of using oil as a substitute fuel is increasing.
Fuel prices are climbing
The steep ascent is clearly noticeable at the petrol station. According to calculations by the ADAC, a liter of premium E10 petrol cost a nationwide daily average of 1.582 euros per liter last Sunday. That was 0.5 cents more than a week before. Diesel became even more expensive with a plus of 1.9 cents and was 1.441 euros per liter on Sunday. Last week, fuel prices had already reached multi-year highs.
Long-term decline expected
In the longer term, however, the markets are anticipating falling oil prices again. For example, contracts for the delivery of Brent currently cost around $ 73 per barrel in one year, $ 68 in two years and $ 64 in three years.