Not a green spot, nowhere. Salt crystals cover the ground as far as the eye can see. What looks like frosting is a beacon of hope for the 21st century: The world’s largest lithium reserves lie beneath the glittering crust of the Atacama salt lake. Around ten kilograms of the light metal are in a lithium-ion battery like the one Tesla uses in its Model S.
Battery cars are more in demand than ever: In the first half of the year, their market share in Germany was over 20 percent. By 2030, German car manufacturers want to sell more than every second car with a purely electric drive. Volkswagen is even planning an electric share of 70 percent and wants to build six cell factories by the end of the decade: each one as large as Tesla’s Gigafactory in the Nevada desert – together with a total output of 240 gigawatt hours (GWh).
A temporary shortage cannot be ruled out
Quite a few experts are wondering how the raw materials for the rapid turnaround in traffic can be extracted so quickly. “Battery cell plants with more than 2000 gigawatt hours have been announced worldwide for 2030. For example, where the lithium for all these battery cells should come from is not clear to me,” said Roland Berger consultant Wolfgang Bernhart. The Chilean Copper Commission also expects that global demand for the raw material will more than quadruple by 2030.
“From a purely geological point of view, there are definitely sufficient lithium resources available,” says Peter Dolega, Senior Researcher in the field of resources and mobility at the Öko-Institut eV “However, it cannot be ruled out that there may be a temporary shortage.” According to estimates by the US geology authority, global lithium resources are 86 million tons, but so far only 21 million tons have been developed – around three quarters are still untouched in South America’s salt lakes or in Australia’s rocks. The question is, at what market price and with what environmental requirements the mining is worthwhile.
For example in Latin America: More than half of global resources are stored in the so-called lithium triangle between Argentina, Bolivia and Chile. This is thanks to the worldwide unique combination of volcanic, geothermal activity and the extremely dry climate of the plateau. Due to an oversupply and low prices, however, little has recently been invested in expanding production and developing new sources. Whether there is actually a temporary shortage of lithium depends, among other things, on whether and how quickly new reservoirs are tapped.
Bolivia wants to be able to cover around 40 percent of global demand by 2030
Bolivia has the largest, so far largely untouched, lithium deposits: an estimated 24 percent of global resources are stored in the Uyuni salt lake. Accordingly, the international attention that the small Andean country has been receiving for a few years is correspondingly high. However, lithium production is making slow progress there. Although ex-President Evo Morales had ambitious plans, so far only small amounts have been mined for experimental purposes.
That is about to change: Morales’ successor Luis Arce recently announced that Bolivia would be able to meet around 40 percent of global lithium demand by 2030. With a time span of up to seven years from development to production, however, it is questionable whether this goal is realistic, especially since only one pilot plant has so far been built in Bolivia. “At least the goals of the Bolivian government are very ambitious,” says Elisabeth Clausen. She is the spokesperson for the Raw Materials and Disposal Technology Section at RWTH Aachen University and head of the Institute for Advanced Mining Technologies.
Endangerment of the indigenous population: Human rights activists criticize lithium mining in the Salar de Uyuni.
(Photo: Gaston Brito / REUTERS)
In addition, the socialist government of Bolivia wants the mining and processing of lithium in state hands under all circumstances; it is skeptical about cooperation with foreign private companies. After all: Under Arce, talks about a joint venture between the Bolivian state group Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos (YLB) and the Baden-Württemberg company ACI Systems were resumed. Morales had unilaterally terminated the contract under pressure from the Bolivian people shortly before his resignation. This would give Germany an advantage in the international competition for the coveted raw material.
Europe is looking for new sources: Is lithium production in the Upper Rhine Rift worthwhile?
Nevertheless, it is important not only to focus on the Uyuni salt lake, says Peter Dolega from the Öko Institut eV Because, on the one hand, the Bolivian raw material is less valuable than the Chilean lithium, and on the other hand, extraction is not as flexible as in Australia , which is currently the world’s largest producer of lithium.
Clausen would also like to broaden the view: “One should ask the question to what extent the potential also exists in Europe.” There are currently promising European projects, one of them in the Upper Rhine Rift, where the largest lithium deposits in Europe are located. In contrast to the extraction from hard rock or brine, the raw material here is to be drawn from underground thermal water reservoirs. If the deposits in Europe were opened up, part of the European demand could be met from them, says Clausen. Corresponding production volumes are, however, unlikely to be expected before 2025.
Lithium is listed by the European Commission as a critical raw material, so it is of great economic importance within the EU and at the same time is exposed to a relatively high supply risk. Accordingly, the EU is very interested in becoming independent of imports and covering part of the lithium demand from domestic production, says Clausen.
A victory for the environment, a risk for importers
Regardless of where it is mined – if lithium is to help climate-friendly mobility, its extraction must also be environmentally friendly. It is also questionable whether the planned socio-ecological standards can be adhered to. This can be assumed in Europe, says Clausen. In South America, things look different: there, lithium extraction is being criticized because of the high water consumption, because the sinking of the groundwater level endangers the local ecosystem and thus also the indigenous population. Especially since the central highlands of the Andes are suffering from a lack of water anyway: The Atacama Desert is one of the driest places in the world.
A new constitution is currently being drawn up in Chile. It is possible that the lithium-rich salt lakes will in future be defined and specially protected as water reservoirs instead of mineral deposits. That would be a victory for the environment and the Chilean population – for lithium consumers it would be more of a risk: Chile is the second largest lithium producer behind Australia, and 78 percent of the raw material for the EU comes from the South American country.
According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency IEA, the reserves that have been tapped to date and the projects currently under construction can only cover around half of the global lithium demand forecast by 2030. According to estimates by the German Raw Materials Agency, an increase in lithium production by a factor of three to six will be necessary in order to meet global demand.
That means investments in the billions, which are associated with no small risk. The automotive industry has been reluctant in this regard, says Clausen: “In many cases, there is no interest shown in participating in the extraction of lithium. The central question remains: Who is willing to make this investment and when? We stand at one point. “