The online flight portal Flightradar24 has just drawn attention to a number: 134,396. So many flights took off worldwide last Thursday, more than ever before in one day. The number is another indication that air traffic is well on the way to leaving its biggest crisis behind. Such new flight records had recently been more frequent, after all, the wave of holiday flights is in full swing.
Above all, the global figures reflect Asia’s rapid comeback – the last corona restrictions have fallen in Japan and China and more and more people are now getting back on the plane. However, new figures from the Federal Association of the German Aviation Industry (BDL) show that air traffic in Germany is developing significantly differently than in the rest of the world and also differently than in other parts of Europe: domestic German flights are not nearly as common as before the corona pandemic .
The BDL has analyzed the capacities that the airlines are planning from July to December 2023 and is trying to identify trends in this way. The most important result: In the second half of 2023, only half as many passengers are expected to fly within Germany as in 2019. At the Munich and Frankfurt hubs, it is still 69 percent of the old level, but that is mainly because Lufthansa continues to be dependent on many transfer passengers , with which to fill its long-haul aircraft. On decentralized routes such as Stuttgart-Berlin, the offer is only 30 percent.
The decline is probably mainly due to profane reasons and not to the sudden awakening of environmental awareness. Ryanair and Easyjet, the two big low-cost airlines, are not very interested in Germany because the costs at the airports are very high and Lufthansa defends the most attractive markets tooth and nail. When Ryanair opened a base in Frankfurt, Lufthansa put so many flights on many of the new competitor’s routes that Ryanair understood the message and withdrew again. Subsidiary Eurowings flies on the decentralized routes. As long as nobody dares, you can make a lot of money with a scarce supply and high prices. And if there is a problem again at the airport due to a lack of staff, the domestic German flights are usually canceled first. There’s still the train.
Environmental groups had recently repeatedly called for a ban on domestic German flights. According to the BDL, they make up eight percent of the total capacity. Since the routes are very short, their share of emissions from air traffic is significantly lower. So banning them would have symbolic value above all.
Manufacturers’ delivery delays are also slowing down air traffic
For European destinations and medium-haul routes, the offer in the second half of the year is 88 percent compared to 2019, and even 98 percent to southern Europe. And the fact that it is probably only 91 percent on long-haul routes has more to do with the chronic delivery delays at Airbus and Boeing than with weak demand. Most flights are full. According to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), capacity utilization was already 81.8 percent worldwide in May, i.e. at the same level as in May 2019.
According to the BDL, some airports in Germany, where low-cost airlines are expanding rapidly, will see strong growth in the second half of the year. Memmingen is 81 percent above the capacity of 2019, Weeze 38 percent. According to the forecast, it will be worst in Dresden: There, the airlines offer only half as many seats compared to the second half of 2019.