After parliamentary elections: Why Portugal is moving to the right

The success of the right-wing populists “Chega” in the parliamentary elections in Portugal is a lesson for socialists and conservatives. It shows how dissatisfied the voters are. How does it go from here?

On the day after the parliamentary election, there is no sign of the night’s political quake. There are hardly any election posters left, and like every day, thousands of tourists crowd through the streets of Lisbon and sit in the cafés; there is a babble of German-Spanish-English voices.

Next door at the newspaper kiosk, the headlines from the night are on the counter. “A country goes to the right,” headlines one newspaper. Newspaper seller Faustino Lopes Baiao says the result shows that the Portuguese are fed up with the Socialists, the counterpart to the SPD, and also with the PSD, which are the conservatives: “They’re all the same.”

Perhaps he got to the heart of what drove more Portuguese to the polling stations on election day than in a long time: anger over the corruption scandals of the two parties, which had alternated in governing for decades. And beyond that, the anger at the socialists, who, although they had advanced the economy and reduced the state’s deficits in their most recent government, did not ensure that all of this paid off in prosperity for everyone.

Lost trust in politics

The dissatisfaction with this is one reason why the right-wing populist party “Chega” – in German “Enough” – was able to more than double its result from 2022 and is now the third strongest party in parliament with 18 percent.

Political scientist Isabel David, who researches at the University of Lisbon, explains that more than half of Portuguese people do not trust parties, the government or the media. This has been the case for several years. “Chega is taking advantage of this loss of trust, along with the crisis in the housing market, inflation, corruption and the chaos in the health system. And then they have a very effective social media strategy.”

And this apparently ensured that “Chega” also mobilized many young voters who see no future in their country, for example because they know that many well-trained doctors emigrate in order to get a decently paid job elsewhere.

No partners in sight for now

“Chega” leading candidate André Ventura shouted to his cheering supporters on election night: “We have the mandate to govern Portugal for the next four years.”

But how? There has been little discussion so far about what specific political ideas the party has to solve the country’s problems. And with whom should “Chega” implement it? The top man of the “Democratic Alliance”, Luis Montenegro, who has a very thin lead, ruled out working with the far-right politicians before the election and also after the publication of the first election results.

Does the firewall hold?

But without the right-wing populists, his party alliance would not have a majority and would therefore have to govern alone. This means that the government would need the votes of other parliamentary groups for every legislative proposal or for the adoption of the state budget.

But if the firewall stands in the way of the right, which also exists in Portugal, Montenegro will be left with few options for cooperation. Because: The failed leading candidate of the Socialists, Pedro Nuno Santos, announced after the election debacle that he would go into opposition and renew his party. “The ‘Democratic Alliance’ cannot count on us. We will not be the ones who support the conservatives in governing.”

That also sounds like a clear rejection of a “grand coalition,” which would be the obvious solution in Germany in such a case. In Portugal this is basically a “no go”. Minority governments, on the other hand, are not uncommon, but they are unstable.

Soon new elections cannot be ruled out

Now many Portuguese are wondering what will happen next in their parliament. Some commentators see Portugal on the verge of another election. What is clear is that forming a government is not a matter of days, but rather of weeks. And the official final result is still pending. Because the votes of Portuguese people living abroad still have to be counted.

But even with these votes, forming a government is likely to be like squaring the circle. Newspaper seller Faustino Lopes Baiao is likely to hand out many more big headlines across his kiosk counter.