At the end of a grueling evening of elections, the conservative PP won in Spain – but not as clearly as many expected. Even together with the right-wing populist Vox, it is not enough for a majority. Now there is a risk of a stalemate.
Things went back and forth on the evening of the election in Spain: surveys had initially shown the conservative People’s Party (PP) to be clearly ahead, but after the first counts it looked like a head-to-head race with the socialist PSOE of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. In the end, as many expected, the Conservatives won – but fell well short of an absolute majority.
PP election winner Alberto Núñez Feijóo said after counting almost all the votes that he wanted to try to form a government. However, it is unclear whether he will succeed. Right-wing populist Vox, with which Feijóo had not ruled out working, made it clear on election night that it wanted to be in government. You will not “give away” your own votes, said Vox Secretary General Ignacio Garriga. Contrary to many pre-election polls, the two parties together missed the absolute majority and needed more partners.
Another “Bloqueo”?
After counting 99.5 percent of the votes, the PP won 136 seats in parliament. Vox suffered losses and only had 33 seats (19 fewer than in 2019). Nevertheless, she could expand her political influence because Feijóo is likely to enter into negotiations with her. PP and Vox together only get 169 votes, seven less than the absolute majority of 176 seats. Feijóo is likely to try to gain these votes in negotiations with smaller parties.
The PSOE with 122 seats in second place. Its left-wing partner, the newly formed electoral alliance Sumar, won 31 seats. Together both parties would get 153 seats.
As a result, the fourth largest economy in the EU, which currently holds the presidency of the Union, could face a long stalemate. A “bloqueo,” a political blockade of the kind that happened twice in a row after the 2015 and 2019 elections, doesn’t seem out of the question. Failure to form a government could result in another election.
No “firewall” right
Like partner parties in Hungary and Poland, Vox has a very unique understanding of the rule of law. She is also Eurosceptic and calls for cashing in on prestige left-wing projects in the areas of social affairs, the protection of minorities and the environment, and for cracking down on separatists. There is no so-called firewall to the right in Spain, as there is in Germany against the AfD. In some regions, PP and Vox already rule together.
A so-called grand coalition is unthinkable in Spain. Sánchez does not even want to tolerate a PP minority government and therefore leaves him “no choice” but to talk to Vox, Feijóo emphasized several times.
Sanchez has ruled since 2018
The election was originally scheduled for December. Sanchez called new elections in late May after his party suffered a defeat in local and regional elections in May.
The PSOE has ruled Spain since 2018. Sanchez was the first politician in the country to overthrow an incumbent government by a motion of no confidence. Since January 2020 he has governed in a minority coalition with the left-wing Podemos party, which emerged from the protest movement against austerity policies.