Market report
Status: 23.09.2021 1:13 p.m.
The DAX can again gain strongly. It is not only from the economic front that signals are mixed up. This raises doubts about the sustainability of the latest DAX gains.
The DAX continued to expand its early price gains in the course of the morning. Up to 15,695 points – an increase of 1.2 percent. This means that the 40 German standard values have risen to over 670 points since their low on Monday at 15,019 points.
In other words, an imminent countermovement in the DAX would hardly be surprising against this backdrop. Especially since the risk factors for the markets with the unclear situation at the Chinese real estate developer Evergrande, the approaching turnaround in interest rates in the USA and the upcoming federal elections at the weekend have not just gotten smaller recently.
Fresh data and forecasts on the economy in Germany and the euro area are likely to have caused new worry lines on the forehead of many investors today. The German economy, for example, surprisingly lost momentum significantly in September due to the industry suffering from bottlenecks.
Economic recovery is stalling
The purchasing managers’ index for the private sector fell by 4.7 to 55.3 points, according to the IHS Markit institute for its monthly survey of hundreds of companies from the industrial and service sectors.
Economists had only expected a slight decrease to 59.2 points. The data showed that the recent economic recovery after the Corona crisis is now slowing down again, said Markit economist Phil Smith.
The expert sees continued inflationary pressure
Business sentiment also deteriorated significantly in September in the eurozone. The IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index fell by 2.9 points to 56.1 points compared to the previous month.
Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil expects “that economic growth in the euro area, contrary to the forecast of the ECB, will weaken significantly in the final quarter”. At the same time, inflationary pressure from raw materials remains high.
IfW cuts economic forecast radically
The new economic forecast from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy fits in with this. The IfW expects a “dent in the winter half-year” and has therefore corrected its economic forecast significantly downwards.
For 2021, the economists expect an increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.6 percent, so far they had 3.9 percent on the list. Next year it should then go up more strongly at 5.1 percent than previously thought with 4.8 percent. The day before, the Ifo Institute had already reduced its growth forecast.
On Wall Street, trading should continue to rise at 3:30 p.m. The future on the leading index Dow Jones Industrial is currently up 0.7 percent. The future on the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 gains 0.8 percent.
The day before, the announcement by the troubled Chinese real estate company China Evergrande that it had found a solution for the interest payment due today on a yuan bond had significantly brightened investor sentiment on Wall Street.
Norwegian krone on the up after rate hike
The Norwegian krone is in demand on the foreign exchange markets. The Norwegian currency can gain around 0.6 percent against the euro. The central bank of Norway had previously raised its key rate from zero to 0.25 percent. This makes Norges Bank the first central bank among the larger economies to raise its key interest rate since the Corona crisis.
After yesterday’s announcement of tapering and interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, the dollar gained significantly against the euro. In return, the euro fell to $ 1.1683 during the night, its lowest level in a month.
Today the euro can make up some ground and is trading at $ 1.1716 above the $ 1.17 mark again.
After initial losses, the gold price has turned positive. At lunchtime, an ounce of the yellow precious metal costs $ 1,771, 0.3 percent more than the day before.
Oil prices failed to hold their early gains and turned into the red. In the early afternoon, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent costs $ 75.80. That is 0.1 percent less than the day before. The price of a barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) drops 0.2 percent to $ 71.79.
The day before, in the wake of the Evergrande recovery rally, which had also hit the commodity markets, oil prices rose by around two percent. The prices for the black gold have also recently benefited from the prospect of insufficient supply in view of the ongoing failure of production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ida.
Bad news from the auto and commercial vehicle industries isn’t stopping investors from buying stocks. Papers from Continental, BMW and VW are in disproportionately high demand.
According to a study, the ongoing chip shortage is likely to have a significantly greater impact on the global auto industry than previously expected. The industry is likely to miss sales of $ 210 billion this year, predicts the consulting firm Alix Partners. In May, the Alix experts had assumed that the load was only half as high.
Volkswagen is threatened with a defeat at the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in the legal dispute over thermal windows. In a report published today by the highest European court, Advocate General Athanasios Rantos takes the view that so-called thermal windows can represent a shutdown device that is illegal and therefore contrary to the contract.
The Lithuanian government’s warning of security flaws and built-in censorship functions has sent the shares of the Chinese smartphone provider Xiaomi downhill. The paper has meanwhile lost almost five percent to 21.95 Hong Kong dollars, falling as sharply as it was two months ago. The Chinese company has denied allegations that it censor communications from users.
According to insiders, Intel boss Pat Gelsinger and representatives of leading tech companies and car manufacturers are speaking today with top representatives of the US presidential office about the semiconductor crisis.
Apple, Microsoft, Samsung Electronics, BMW, GM, Ford and Opel parent Stellantis will take part in the virtual meeting. The main item on the agenda is the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on chip supply.
The British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca is betting on the next generation of RNA technology in a multi-million dollar deal. AstraZeneca announced today that a partnership for the development of new drugs based on this technology has been agreed with the startup VaxEquity, which was founded by vaccine expert Robin Shattock from Imperial College London.
The US aircraft manufacturer expects a slightly higher demand for its machines from China over the next 20 years. The Chinese airlines need 8,700 new aircraft by 2040, which corresponds to a list price of 1.47 trillion dollars, said Boeing. The group had previously expected 8,600 aircraft in this period.
One of the closest confidants of Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg will be the new technology boss of the world’s largest online network in the coming year. Andrew Bosworth will be responsible for the massive infrastructure with large data centers and, as before, the hardware business with technology such as the Oculus VR glasses. Bosworth has been one of Zuckerberg’s most important companions since the early years of Facebook.
Apple does not want the popular online game “Fortnite” to return to its app store until the legal dispute with the developer Epic Games is completely over. The iPhone company declined a request for the resumption, according to a letter published by Epic boss Tim Sweeney. Apple referred, among other things, to the previous “duplicitous” behavior of Epic.