The US military had seen three acute threats to Hamid Karzai International Airport. With the rocket attack on Kabul airport on Monday morning, all three fears have come true. First the devastating suicide bombing by the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS) on Thursday, which left more than 180 dead, in which shooters with automatic weapons used the chaos after the detonation to murder even more people.
Then on Sunday an attempted suicide attack with a car bomb, called SVBIED in military jargon, a feared murder weapon of the jihadists in Iraq because the vehicles with small arms or bazookas often cannot be stopped. A US drone used a rocket to attack the car that the Taliban said had contained three suicide bombers. According to the US military, they had approached the Afghan capital’s airport and posed an imminent threat.
The explosives the terrorists packed in the car detonated in a massive second explosion. Local TV station Tolo News reported Monday that at least ten civilians had been killed, including children. The US military was still investigating.
Thirdly, rockets. A tactical defense system stationed at the airport intercepted five of the missiles that had been fired from a car. Taliban fighters inspected the burned-out vehicle on a street in the middle of the city – they did not prevent the attack, in which, according to preliminary information from the US military, no one was harmed, at least at the airport. A sixth missile hit off-site and destroyed a car; Local residents also reported that their homes had been hit by shrapnel.
What can already be deduced from this: Securing Kabul airport, which would be a condition for it to be able to continue to operate civilly, is difficult. Even if the Taliban got a better grip on the capital. Turkey, which was supposed to take over operations from the US military before the collapse of the Afghan government, sees this as the greatest obstacle.
Who should secure the airport?
It is said in Ankara that the technical assistance that the Taliban have now also requested can hardly be provided without a security presence of its own. “How can we hand over security to the Taliban?” Asked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday evening. “How would we explain it to the world if they took over security and there was another bloodbath there? It’s not an easy job!”
To protect the area, which is an easy target for rockets and mortar shells, the passengers would be checked in the terminals and during the handling of luggage so that no assassins could sneak in or bombs could be smuggled into an aircraft. Rocket fire is also a threat to machines taking off and landing. The Americans used drones and intelligence services to monitor the situation – but they were unable to prevent the attack on Thursday in front of one of the entrance gates.
The deployment of former Turkish soldiers is conceivable. France and Great Britain have also raised the idea of a UN security zone in Kabul, which should also offer those in need of protection a way out of Afghanistan – but it is still completely unclear who should secure this zone. The United Nations itself? Military from Muslim countries? So far, the Taliban have rejected any foreign military presence. That is why NATO member Turkey withdrew its soldiers.
According to the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the taxiways as well as the terminals and the tower at the airport have to be repaired because some of them are badly damaged. “Personnel and equipment are required for this,” he said – including those for handling air traffic, which would cost several millions. It remains to be seen whether Turkey is ready to send both to Afghanistan under the current conditions. Qatar, which still houses part of the Taliban’s political office in its capital Doha, is also involved in the negotiations.
A spokesman for the extremist group, which is still officially classified as a terrorist organization, said it was not yet clear whether Turkey or Qatar would even be needed to operate the airport. According to him, the Taliban have a team of experts who are able to operate the technology.
Drones cannot replace human observers
And one more thing is already becoming apparent after the attacks on the airport, at least in outline: How the USA could try in future to fight IS in Afghanistan, which, unlike the Taliban, is pursuing goals beyond the country. The retaliatory attack on two Islamic State cadres allegedly responsible for planning Thursday’s suicide attack is a pattern: They were killed on Sunday in a drone attack using a special missile.
the Hellfire RX9 does not carry an ordinary warhead loaded with explosives. It hits its target solely with the kinetic energy and six metal blades that extend out of the rocket shortly before the impact. This is to prevent bystanders from being harmed. Video recordings of the site of the attack show the tuk-tuk, a three-wheeled vehicle that the men used – unlike a normal rocket hit, it is still reasonably intact.
However, in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan, the USA has so far relied largely on information from secret service agents and soldiers in the country, on information from the Afghan security forces. All of that will be missing in the future. The picture of the situation outside of Kabul is already beginning to deteriorate. Satellites, drones, and communications surveillance cannot replace a network of human sources equally.
One option that is on the table is to support the Taliban in the fight against the far more extreme IS. The US armed forces have given the Taliban a limited amount of information about the offshoot, which calls itself “Khorasan Province,” as recently admitted the commander of the US military’s regional command for Afghanistan and the Middle East, General Kenneth McKenzie .
However, the Taliban themselves have refused to cooperate with the Americans beyond the final withdrawal this Tuesday and have also criticized the drone attacks. The Taliban are able to guarantee the population security and to collect precise and reliable information about terrorist groups like ISIS and to fight them, said one of their spokesmen, Zabihullah Mujahid. The Taliban are enemies with IS. On the other hand, some of them remain in close contact with the al-Qaeda terrorist network, which is also present in Afghanistan.