The AfD has a loyal core electorate in East Germany, but no convincing top staff – this is the result of a large Forsa study before the state elections in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia. An overview.
What’s that about? Many comrades may have asked themselves this question when Sigmar Gabriel launched an unusual election call. The long-time SPD chairman had campaigned to support CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer in the upcoming Saxon state election campaign. “We need guys like that now,” said Gabriel, referring to an ever-growing AfD. It wasn’t just the weakening Social Democrats in the Free State who were flabbergasted. According to current surveys, they have to worry about whether they will fail to meet the five percent hurdle in the state’s elections in September.
Gabriel’s surprising support could still help prevent a political first in Germany: a victory for the right-wing populists in state elections.
This is the conclusion of a major study by the opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland (the star is part of the media company), which dealt with voter motives and reservations of (AfD) voters in the three eastern German states. New state parliaments will be elected in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia in autumn.
Accordingly, the incumbent prime ministers in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in particular can prevent the AfD from winning elections. In all three countries, right-wing populists are leading the polls without exception. But as the example of Saxony shows: even many AfD regular voters are “satisfied” with Prime Minister Kretschmer. They obviously don’t see an attractive alternative to the CDU man.
The traffic light coalition in the federal government could also contribute to a trend reversal – if it takes tougher action on an issue. However, as the figures also show, it is already clear to a large part of the AfD’s core voters that they want to vote for the partly right-wing extremist party in September. This makes those who are still undecided more important to the other parties. Five findings from the Forsa investigation:
1: The prime ministers could make the difference
The incumbent prime ministers could be a decisive factor in preventing AfD election victories in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg. Even 28 percent of AfD regular voters are “satisfied” with the CDU Prime Minister of Saxony. Whereas the AfD’s top candidates in the three federal states are failing badly even among their own regular voters:
- Thuringia: Only 28 percent of AfD regular voters (and only six percent of all eligible voters) consider Björn Höcke to be a better prime minister than incumbent Bodo Ramelow from the Left Party.
- Saxony: Only 16 percent of AfD regular voters (and three percent of all eligible voters) consider AfD top candidate Jörg Urban to be better than CDU incumbent Michael Kretschmer.
- Brandenburg: Only 12 percent of AfD regular voters see Birgit Bessin as a better top candidate than SPD incumbent Dietmar Woidke.
2: The AfD has a loyal core electorate
The study distinguishes between three different AfD voters: the regular voters the party that already voted for the AfD in the 2021 federal election. The “immigrants”who only moved to the AfD after 2021. And potential voterswho can imagine voting for the AfD.
The majority of regular voters want to stay that way: in the three eastern federal states, up to 85 percent say they are unwaveringly determined to vote for the AfD in September. Of the AfD voters who only became supporters in 2021 (i.e. the “immigrants”), between 35 and 41 percent can still imagine voting for a party other than the AfD in the state elections. Among potential AfD voters, this proportion is 59 to 70 percent.
According to the study, 54 percent of regular voters in Saxony, 40 percent in Brandenburg and 38 percent in Thuringia choose the AfD because they are convinced of the party’s political ideas. Whereas the “immigrants” in all three countries chose the party primarily because they are dissatisfied with the federal government’s policies.
3: The federal government can still win back AfD voters if…
The federal government could prevent AfD supporters in all three eastern German states from actually voting for the AfD. At least in demoscopic theory.
According to the Forsa study, around a fifth of current AfD supporters could imagine no longer voting for the party – when the traffic light coalition in Berlin changes its policyparticularly due to a tightening in the area of migration.
Interesting: If the CDU more conservative again (queried: a “move to the right” by the CDU), that would only be a reason for very few AfD supporters to deny the AfD their cross. That too Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), according to the survey, only makes very few people reconsider their voting decision.
4: The “most important problem” is not migration – and certainly not climate change
The Forsa survey also shows this: climate protection is unlikely to be a campaign hit in the state elections – voters in the three eastern German states see their priorities elsewhere.
In all three states, only less than a fifth of all eligible voters believe that climate change is currently the most important problem in each federal state. Around four fifths believe that there are other problems that are just as important or even more important. Almost all of the AfD supporters think so.
What does politics need to pay particular attention to in the next few years? That was the question that was answered similarly in all three countries:
Thuringia: In Thuringia, it is particularly important to those eligible to vote that the state’s politicians care about creating a good and fair education system (63 percent) and a secure and affordable energy supply (62 percent). Also significantly more important than climate change (16 percent) are curbing price increases (48 percent), combating crime and violence (46 percent) and a general stop to the immigration of foreigners (46 percent).
Saxony: Here, too, energy security (64 percent), a good education system (63 percent), reducing price increases (51 percent), the fight against crime (48 percent) and a stop to the immigration of foreigners (45 percent) have a higher priority than climate change (18 percent).
Brandenburg: The issues that should be addressed by politicians are largely similar to those in the other two countries. The most important here are the energy supply and the education system (62 percent each), followed by the fight against crime and curbing price increases (48 percent each) and a stop to the immigration of foreigners (43 percent). Here too, climate change (19 percent) brings up the rear.
For AfD regular voters in the three countries, climate change plays practically no role: a maximum of one percent (!) considers it to be the most important problem. On the other hand, a stop to immigration for foreigners and a secure and affordable energy supply top the priority list with values of over 90 percent each.
5: The AfD mobilizes non-voters – out of fear of their possible power
The AfD could mobilize identified non-voters – to prevent the right-wing populists. This is also what the Forsa study shows.
Should it become apparent shortly before the election that the AfD could become by far the strongest force in the state elections or even get the absolute majority of seats in the state parliament, half of those eligible to vote who do not want to take part in the election today would consider doing so still go to the polls. And vote for one of the other parties (especially the CDU, the SPD and, in Thuringia, the Left).
Fear of a strong AfD? The pollsters also checked that. The scenario asked: If it becomes apparent that the AfD will be by far the strongest party in the state elections or even receive the absolute majority of seats in the state parliament, then…
…would like that Thuringia 29 percent were good, 52 percent would be scared, 11 percent wouldn’t care.
…would like that Saxony 29 percent are good, 50 percent would be scared, 13 percent wouldn’t care.
…would like that Brandenburg 24 percent are good, 56 percent would be afraid, 13 percent wouldn’t care.
On the data basis and methodology
For the survey commissioned by RTL Deutschland – the star is part of the media company – the opinion research institute Forsa has addressed several questions regarding the AfD and its supporters in the three eastern German states where state elections will take place in the fall. As part of this study, 1,007 eligible voters selected from the population-representative Forsa omninet panel were interviewed in Brandenburg, 1,507 in Saxony and 1,253 in Thuringia from January 7th to 10th, 2024. The results can only be transferred to the total number of eligible voters in the three countries with the error tolerances possible in all sample surveys (in these three studies +/- 2.8 to 3 percentage points).