From our correspondent in the United States,
Nothing is going as planned for Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. The Russian president was convinced, according to the CIA, that his “special military operation” would allow him to capture kyiv in 48 hours and quickly decapitate the Ukrainian government. But a month after the start of the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian forces are doing more than resisting: for two days, they have been carrying out sporadic counter-offensives around their capital. And even if nothing is won for Volodymyr Zelensky, “the dynamic is being reversed”, estimates for 20 minutes retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe. A look back at four weeks of conflict.
February 24 – March 4: Shock and Awe
On February 24, Vladimir Putin bets on a blitzkrieg. At the end of the night, a deluge of bombs and cruise missiles fell on fifteen Ukrainian cities, including Lviv, near the Polish border. From the first hours, a crucial battle is being played out in Hostomel, in the northwestern suburbs of kyiv, for control of Antonov airport. Russian helicopters and Spetsnaz special forces first take control of it in the morning.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow is then about to launch 18 IL-76 military transport planes capable of carrying a total of 2,000 paratroopers. Who could then have participated in the assault on kyiv, 30 km away. But the 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard arrives as reinforcements with artillery units. And manages to resist enough for Moscow to abandon its project, says the wall street journal. If the Russian army ends up securing the airport after 48 hours, the Ukrainian Minister of Defense assures that the runway has been too damaged to be used by Moscow for an airlift.
In the rest of the country, Russian forces are progressing mainly in the east, in the Donbass, and in the south. The port city of Kherson falls on March 2. But Kharkiv, in the north, resists. On the night of the 3rd to the 4th, Russian gunfire hit the nuclear power plant in Zaporijjia. International leaders are stepping up.
March 5-21: Stalling and Siege of Mariupol
After just under two weeks of conflict, the Russian machine is beginning to show its limits. The encirclement of kyiv, announced as imminent, does not end. A gigantic military convoy 60 km long remains blocked for more than a week, paralyzed by logistics and supply problems. Ben Hodges, who praises the Ukrainian resistance, beats Putin: “It’s a spectacular failure on all levels. Russia is far from having the manpower or the capabilities to achieve its objectives. »
In full stalemate, the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, fears that “the worst is to come with a siege war (…) like in Aleppo or Grozny”. Or in Mariupol. In this strategic port of the encircled mother of Azov, the humanitarian situation is worsening, with more than 200,000 civilians waiting to be evacuated. About half end up through humanitarian corridors despite Russian violations. On March 9, a Russian strike hit a maternity ward, leaving three dead and 17 injured, according to kyiv. A week later, the city theater was partially destroyed.
Now Russian ships stationed in the Azov Sea are participating in the strikes. Melinda Haring, deputy director of the center for Eurasia at the Atlantic Council, an influential American think-tank, recalls the strategic importance of Mariupol: conquering the city would make it possible to “connect occupied Donbass and southern Ukraine”. Enough to offer Moscow a “direct land bridge between Russia and Crimea”.
March 22-24: The Ukrainian counter-offensives
For 48 hours, the Ukrainian forces claim to have taken over several towns or strategic suburbs. If the complete reconquest of Marakiv, west of kyiv, was denied by the mayor, the Russian army retreated 30 km, Wednesday, east of kyiv, says the Pentagon. According to whom Russia is “digging in and establishing defensive positions” to protect its gains.
To the west of kyiv, “we could be about to see the Russian forces surrounded, which would be a major victory” for kyiv, analyzes retired general Ben Hodges. Which reminds us that keeping supply routes open to deliver humanitarian – and especially military – aid from the West is critical.
The sequel: War of attrition and the unknown Putin
Ben Hodges warns: “Ukrainian civilians will continue to be killed”. The retired American general called for “a real airlift”, as in Berlin in 1948, to deliver the promised equipment as quickly as possible. US kamikaze drones, Stinger man-portable surface-to-air missiles, Javelin anti-tank missile launchers and Soviet S-300 long-range anti-missile systems claimed by kyiv.
Russia will have to deal with climatic conditions, with the thaw and the sludge season, as well as the flooding of the Irpin river, near kyiv. For the Pentagon, we have now entered into a “war of attrition” which could last. How long ? Everything will depend on when Vladimir Putin decides that the conflict has become too costly economically in the face of Western sanctions, and politically in the face of Russian losses. Volodymyr Zelensky, he said he was ready to give up NATO membership in exchange for “real security guarantees”, and open to a compromise on the status of Donbass, on condition that it be submitted to a referendum.
Faced with these variables, Melinda Haring does not rule out the war continuing for “two or three months”. With the fear, expressed by Joe Biden, of a chemical attack or the use of a “tactical nuclear weapon” by Putin. The Atlantic Council expert believes in the first, less in the second. According to the New York Times, Joe Biden has however formed a special team called “Tiger team”. Its role: to prepare the American reaction to a worst-case scenario. With a question for the moment unanswered: what would be the red line, with the exception of an attack against one of the member countries, which would justify NATO’s entry into the conflict?
Russian losses: up to 40,000 soldiers killed, wounded or captured
According to NATO officials, between 7,000 and 15,000 members of the Russian army have died since the start of the invasion. In total, the Atlantic Alliance estimates that between 30,000 and 40,000 Russian soldiers were killed, wounded, captured or missing. This would represent between 15 and 20% of the forces deployed by Moscow – 150,000 troops plus 40,000 separatists from Donbass. On Tuesday, the Pentagon had put forward an estimate – lower – of a 10% reduction in combat personnel.
In an ultra-centralized army, the Russian General Staff seems to be being decimated. kyiv claims to have killed five generals from Moscow, which would represent almost a quarter of those present in Ukraine, to which would be added a dozen commanders – figures which have however only been partially confirmed by independent sources.
On CNN, General Petraeus, ex-commander of the American forces in Afghanistan, explains this Russian fiasco: “Their command centers are collapsing. Their secure communications are not working. The Ukrainians are jamming them. They (the generals) take smartphones from Ukrainian civilians to make calls which are intercepted. If a column stops, the generals will see in front what is happening because no one is able to make a decision. And the Ukrainians have very good snipers who knock them out. »
For its offensive, Moscow is using Wagner’s mercenaries and has appealed to Syria. But for now, the Pentagon has not seen a massive delivery of reinforcements. In Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko procrastinates, and Ben Hodges considers it “improbable” that a few thousand additional foreign soldiers can “change the game”.