Zelenskyj’s US visit: “The Americans do it, Germany talks”

The Ukrainian President symbolically visits the USA and receives new aid pledges. The security policy expert Mölling explains what that means: for Ukraine, for the USA, for Germany – and what options Russia has.

tagesschau.de: President Selenskyj makes a spectacular trip to the USA, he is received by the President, speaks to Congress and receives new aid pledges. What do you think is more important: the symbolic act of travel and reception – or the further promises of help?

Christian Molling: Both is important. The symbolic act, the personal encounter and the address are something different than a meeting via video conference. Zelenskyy put himself in danger with this trip, he spoke in English, the mother tongue of the US deputies. That makes the decisive difference in the atmosphere in the talks. It was about securing help for the future. A face-to-face meeting is very important for this, because that way you can better coordinate and reassure yourself how serious you are and whether the help is actually being received.

“A perfect mix”

tagesschau.de: When inviting Biden, did he also have the Republicans in mind, who took over the majority in the House of Representatives in January and have repeatedly criticized the extent of aid to Ukraine?

Moelling: Biden created the opportunity to have Zelenskyj there to make a point to the public that he, Biden, cannot credibly make. This is about the stylistic device of authenticity. No one can present Ukraine’s concerns like Zelenskyy. And for the President of Ukraine it was an opportunity to speak to many.

It was clear to Biden that Zelenskyy would seek further help. Such an encounter is prepared, one prepares for possible questions and demands, prepares answers. In this respect, the meeting was a culmination point in a critical phase of the war.

Ukraine can achieve a lot – but it is essentially dependent on the US, which is still the largest donor – not only for military aid, but also for the other aids. In the end it was a “perfect mix” of symbolism and tangible result that should calm all critics.

“Negotiating room for Republicans is getting smaller”

tagesschau.de: And has Biden managed to draw a line with the Republicans that they cannot retreat from in the budget talks?

Moelling: I don’t think Republicans will commit themselves to any kind of national line now. Aid to Ukraine is part of budget negotiations. The Republicans are still undecided which line they will take in the future. Currently there is more legroom for people who want to support Zelenskyy, because it is not yet clear who will be the Republican presidential candidate. Not all Republicans are against supporting Ukraine.

Zelenskyj has strongly focused on the idea of ​​the freedom struggle. Nothing is more ingrained in the narrative of the American nation than the struggle for freedom. The Republicans have nothing against that.

Nothing has been decided in the negotiations yet. But the course and results of the visit make the Republicans’ room for maneuver smaller. Agreeing with Zelenskyy now and later canceling his aid will be more difficult.

“These commitments are vital”

tagesschau.de: How much do Ukraine’s new pledges of immediate and long-term aid help Ukraine?

Moelling: These commitments are vital. The Ukrainians are in great need of ammunition and anti-aircraft defenses. The promised Patriot air defense system may not represent a paradigm shift. But the permanent flow of anti-aircraft ammunition is still ensured. This is crucial.

A few weeks ago, the Americans set the course in industrial production in such a way that Biden’s promise of “help, whatever the cost” are not just nice words as they come from Germany. It’s the Americans who are doing the “Wumms” that Scholz conjured up here.

“Putin has no other choice”

tagesschau.de: Ukraine warns of a Russian offensive later this winter. Is that a realistic scenario? Is Russia even able to do this?

Moelling: The Russian leadership has no other choice. Putin has placed himself in a quandary by annexing territories over which he has no control at all, on the contrary he is losing control over them.

In addition, new soldiers have been recruited. Even if they don’t have full combat capability, Putin can’t help but launch an offensive and try to reclaim terrain.

“War goals can only be achieved by offensive”

tagesschau.de: And Ukraine will do the same.

Moelling: You have to bring these two images together. Ukraine will not let up and, for its part, is planning a new offensive. This war cannot be decided otherwise by either side, if the war aims cannot be achieved. The war aims are incompatible with one another and cannot be brought about by freezing the conflict.

“Russia must continue the war for better or for worse”

tagesschau.de: Russia is increasing its armed forces, but what about ammunition? Does Russia even have enough ammunition left to carry out major offensives, as far as can be judged from the outside?

Moelling: Russia had to ask Iran, North Korea and Belarus for help or force Belarus to do so. From this we can see that our own ammunition is no longer sufficient. Also, the Russian army has apparently started using ammunition that is decades old. But that does not have to speak against an offensive. In the past few months, Russia has shown that it is willing to systematically burn human life.

Russia must continue this war for better or for worse because Putin is committed. He can’t get out of it because it would mean the end of his political career. That’s why he can’t just negotiate with Ukraine now. In addition, the new commander-in-chief of the Russian troops in Ukraine has introduced more systematic methods into the conduct of the war, so that the army will probably act in a more orderly manner.

tagesschau.de: The aim of mobilization is also to enable more rotation between fighting and rested units. Given the insufficient fighting power, is that realistic?

Moelling: I am sceptical. If they send soldiers to the front who can’t fight, they won’t survive. And then again they have no one who can rotate from the front to the rest phase. And Russia lacks modern weapons systems. On the Ukrainian side, the only question is: will the flow of ammunition, but also material, be maintained or, hopefully, will it even increase?

“Germany is in a dilemma”

tagesschau.de: Do the most recent commitments by the USA make the Europeans even more responsible?

Moelling: Yes, and Germany in particular is now in a quandary again because the Americans are simply acting unilaterally. In the dispute with Poland over the transfer of Patriot systems to Ukraine, the German side said that it could not be done alone. And now the Americans are coming and just doing it while Germany is talking about it.

The Americans acknowledge their obligation to Ukraine to bring this war to an end at some point, supply an air defense system and then also train at bases in Germany. Little consideration is given to German sensitivities. Of course, the USA can also draw on a large stock. And the other Europeans scraped together what they still have.

tagesschau.de: Germany has also referred to its commitments to NATO

Moelling: The NATO Secretary General then said that this was less important than supporting Ukraine. Germany is lost there.

Germany hides behind the argument of alliance obligations in order not to have to become more active. Many NATO allies are already much further along. Supporting Ukraine is for many a form of extended alliance defence. Because the Russian material that is currently being destroyed in Ukraine no longer gives us a headache in the theoretical case of a Russian attack on NATO territory. In this respect, supporting Ukraine serves the security of all of Europe.

“The federal government is unwilling to draw conclusions”

tagesschau.de: Then it goes in the extension to the question of battle tanks.

Moelling: This question is coming back now. Also because the Soviet material that Ukraine has received so far has been shot up at some point. Germany has bought itself a bit of time at the moment. But at some point Ukraine will need supplies.

The problem is that the federal government is unwilling to look ahead and draw the conclusions from their own words. She said the same thing as Biden: we will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. But we don’t do everything to ensure that this becomes powerful support.

The conversation was led by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de