Young voters could play a crucial role in Turkey’s elections. Many only know Erdogan at the head of state and government and are dissatisfied. But in the end, does Erdogan of all people benefit from this?
Ismail Temel loudly shouts at passers-by the contents of the party program of the left-green Yesil Sol party: “Your vote – for a strong representation of women and young people in parliament! With us, the workers’ pockets will be fuller again,” he declaimed. Temel stands on a pier on the Bosphorus in Istanbul’s Besiktas district.
For the past two weeks, he’s been campaigning in the street every day, handing out leaflets, trying to get into conversation with people, trying to convince them. Temel is 22 years old, a student and voting for the first time in the parliamentary and presidential elections.
desire for policy change
For him it is clear that there must be a change in policy in Turkey: “Defeating the AKP would be an achievement for this country. Then everyone can breathe better and live in peace and quiet.” These elections are about nothing less than more justice, about more opportunities for women, for workers and, above all, for young people, he says.
Ismail and his generation only know Turkey under the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamic conservative AKP.
Five million first-time voters
Like Ismail, around five million young Turks will be able to cast their votes for the first time on May 14. That is about eight percent of all eligible voters – not insignificant for the outcome of the election.
According to polls, younger voters are very skeptical about Erdogan and his government. Around 50 percent of 18- to 30-year-olds are against the incumbent president, according to the opinion research institute Türkiye Raporu in April.
What young voters care about
According to surveys, the dissatisfaction of young voters is not only directed against the government – according to them, they have very little trust in the parties and political institutions. Most prefer a just rather than an authoritarian state. They want more freedom, more opportunities, feel neglected and not taken seriously.
Above all economically, they see no prospects for themselves and their generation. High inflation and youth unemployment, which is currently around 19 percent, all cause great concern for young people.
Most of them have financial difficulties and cannot afford housing at the moment. Whether it’s working conditions, the judiciary or education – they want fundamental improvements and changes on all of these issues.
A longer development
And that’s nothing new. As early as 2021, a youth study by the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation came to the conclusion that the majority of young people in Turkey have a pessimistic view of the future of their home country and would like to live in another country if they had the opportunity.
The Türkiye Raporu confirms the trend with its current polls: “Most young voters see emigration from Turkey as an option if Erdogan wins.”
Conversely, most respondents believe that there will be change in Turkey should Erdogan lose.
Advertising with gigabytes
The two main competitors, 69-year-old Recep Tayyip Erdogan and 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu, are all the more courting the group of first-time and young voters and trying to address them directly. They promise, for example, the abolition of a tax on the purchase of mobile phones or free access to the Internet.
Kilicdaroglu’s alliance advertised five free gigabytes a month, and the government later followed suit with a promise of eleven gigabytes. Kilicdaroglu also promises to specifically reduce youth unemployment with new training programs and wants to promote young entrepreneurs and start-ups.
Meanwhile, the AKP also promises an economic upswing. The economic situation plays a major role in the election campaign because, according to polls, no topic worries Turks more – not just young voters.
Is the opposition taking away the votes?
But despite all the dissatisfaction with Erdogan – it is not certain that this will automatically benefit his most important challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the opposition alliance “Six-Tisch”.
Because Türkiye Raporu states “that some young voters see Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu as a kind of duo and not as arch-rivals who together represent the old and the long past”.
Popular as “anti-candidate”
The election researchers assume that some of the dissatisfied could turn to other candidates: Muharrem Ince from the home party Memleket Partisi and Sinan Ogan from the electoral alliance Ata Ittifaki.
Ince was popular with young voters in early February. Presenting himself as something of an anti-candidate, he made a name for himself among many young and undecided voters when he visited the disaster area shortly after the earthquake and demanded an account of what had happened.
A TikTok dance video he published went viral at the time and initially greatly contributed to his popularity. However, since the end of March, his popularity ratings have been falling again.
These voices could ultimately be missing from Kilicdaroglu – and help Erdogan to victory.
The struggles of the campaigners
In Besiktas, all parties are represented with stands around the pier. Thousands walk past the stands and flags with the likenesses of the four candidates. Only a few, however, stop and engage in talks with the election campaigners.
Despite this, Ismail Temel tirelessly shouts his election slogans. He will advertise his party and his convictions until election day. Because, he affirms, Turkey can only become a freer, more democratic and fairer country again with a change in policy.
The ARD reports extra on the elections in Turkey in a Weltspiegel – today at 10.50 p.m. in the first.