analysis
A month ago, the uprising of military contractor Prigozhin shook President Putin’s power. But he was not arrested, but pursued new projects. Why did the “traitor” get away?
It was not Yevgeny Prigozhin who was brought before a Moscow court on July 21 and arrested. It was someone who had sharply criticized Prigozhin for the uprising at the end of June: the ultra-nationalist and war criminal Igor Girkin.
While high-ranking commanders of the armed forces have lost their posts and General Sergey Surovikin is still missing, Prigozhin can move around Russia safely and appear with representatives of other states on the fringes of the Africa-Russia summit in St. Petersburg.
On the first day of the summit, a photo of Prigozhin with an aide of the President of the Central African Republic appeared on Facebook. It was posted by Dimitri Sytyi, head of the Russian House in the Central African capital of Bangui. Sytyi is under US sanctions not least because of his ties to Prigozhin. According to the Saint Petersburg media platform “Fontanka”, the photo was taken in a hotel owned by the Prigozhin family.
Prigozhin himself spoke up about the coup in Niger via the messenger service Telegram. It was a fight against the “colonizers” who tried to maintain their influence in Africa with the help of terrorists and bandits – a statement entirely in line with the Kremlin’s propaganda, according to which the continent was freeing itself from the colonial yoke of Western states and supporting Russia in the process. At the same time, Prigozhin praised the achievements of his Wagner group.
Distance to power in Moscow
Prigozhin’s behavior shows that Putin neither wants nor can get rid of those responsible for the “betrayal,” as he called the mutiny on June 24. Putin’s meeting with Prigozhin and commanders of the Wagner units five days after the mutiny, which was later made known by Western sources, indicated that they had negotiated a deal. This apparently amounts to Prigozhin staying away from power in Moscow and the Russian public.
Prigozhin’s media empire Patriot Media Group should close, at least that’s what Yevgeny Zubarev, editor-in-chief of the news platform RIA FAN, announced at the end of June. The telecom authority Roskomnadzor took related websites offline. Prigozhin’s headquarters in St. Petersburg were searched. His companies in Russia should close.
In addition, Prigozhin lost his prominent political position, since his fighters are no longer stationed in Ukraine and had to give up their military equipment. Successes in Popasna, Soledar and Bakhmut gave Prigozhin the legitimacy to publicly attack Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov and demand their resignation.
Base in Belarus
In Belarus, the Wagner units seem to be far enough away – and at the same time useful as a backdrop for threats: on the one hand, they continue to oppose their own military leadership. On the other hand, the fighters offer a new threat scenario to the west. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned of Wagner fighters near the border with Poland who could undertake hybrid attacks to destabilize the border. However, the opposition newspaper “Gazeta Wyborcza” saw this as an election campaign maneuver.
In addition, Belarus could become the hub of Prigozhin’s business. On July 19, he registered the company Concord Management and Consulting there as a subsidiary of his Russian company of the same name, founded in 2003. As the Belarusian medium “reform.by” found out, it was registered in the Mogilev region in the east of the country. There is a camp there. Satellite images show that shelters have been set up on the site since the end of June and that more vehicles and equipment have been parked since mid-July.
More presence in Africa
At the end of July Prigozhin paid a visit to the camp. Wagner will gather his strength in Belarus, prepare for new missions and strengthen the presence in Africa, he said.
Shortly after the June uprising, there were reports that Wagner fighters in Syria were being asked to sign new contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry or return to Russia. However, it is questionable whether the professional Wagner fighters, with their high salaries, were willing to submit to the military leadership as regular soldiers.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Mali and the Central African Republic had approached Wagner with a request to ensure the security of their leaders. The events in Russia did not affect relations with partners and friends, Lavrov assured, without further specifying.
Lucrative earnings
So far, there is no evidence that Prigozhin’s global corporate empire has been broken up and divided among competitors – as happens to businessmen who fall out of favor with Putin and his people. It may be more profitable for them to avoid losses from a breakup and share in its earnings.
Among other things, Prigozhin has concessions for gold in Sudan, oil in Libya and Syria, gold, diamonds and timber in Central Africa. The independent research organization “All Eyes on Wagner” estimates the income from his timber business in Central Africa alone at almost one billion dollars, the income from just one gold mine there at around 2.7 billion dollars.
Prigozhin explained that he finances projects in Syria, Africa and other countries with income that he has received from the Russian state since 2006 for supplying the armed forces with food. Putin recently confirmed that Prigozhin’s catering service received at least $1 billion from the state in 2022 to feed Russian soldiers in Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense also provided weapons and logistical support to the Wagner units. However, they said nothing about where Prigozhin’s income from raw material concessions goes.
Act against Prigozhin
In addition to paying state money, Putin also mentioned that Wagner could not even exist as a private military company because it was forbidden by law in Russia – an indication that the president always had legal recourse against Prigozhin. The latter, in turn, struggled to emphasize that his uprising was not directed against Putin, but solely against the incompetent military leadership: “Our goal was not to overthrow the existing regime and the lawfully elected government.”
Even if the majority of experts believe that Putin has significantly weakened his position in power by underestimating Prigozhin’s determination, for the time being the president is sticking to both Prigozhin and the model of private military organizations. At the end of July, the State Duma voted to give regional governors the right to set up their own military organizations in times of war, martial law or mobilization.
Obviously, Putin still sees advantages in fomenting competition between different armed groups, avoiding having to attribute war casualties to the regular armed forces, and further blurring the line between the state and private sectors.