WTA Finals – Caroline Garcia in the Masters final: a golden opportunity to soar higher

The context

At mid-season, who could have predicted such a fate? Certainly not Caroline Garcia herself. Kept away from the courts for two months (from March to May) because of an injury to the left foot (plantar aponeurosis), eliminated in the 2nd round of Roland-Garros, her recovery tournament, she was in 75th place worldwide on June 6th. The Masters was therefore very far away, but one summer was enough for the Lyonnaise to breathe new life into her career. From her title on the German grass of Bad Homburg to her first Grand Slam semi-final at the US Open to her crowning victory at the WTA 1000 in Cincinnati, she has compiled 31 victories in 36 matches, more than any other player. .

Repositioned in the World Top 10 at the exit of Flushing Meadows for the first time in four years and 5th in the Race, the end-of-season objective became clear: to participate in the Women’s Masters five years after discovering it. The tension then returned to tickle her right arm, but despite three defeats in four matches, her margin over her direct competitors was sufficient for her to be there. And since the start of the competition in Texas, despite a mysterious separation from the coach of his revival Bertrand Perret, Garcia has returned to his positive state of mind and his offensive intentions which have so often borne fruit in recent months. .

Admittedly, she qualified in extremis for the semi-finals, at the cost of a last thriller match against Daria Kasatkina. But the Frenchwoman is fully committed, even against Iga Swiatek for her second group match, the Pole being untouchable that day. Already in the last four five years ago, she will therefore discover the final this time because in the half, she literally scattered Maria Sakkari, not letting the Greek breathe for a single moment.

A reunion with Swiatek, indisputable and undisputed world number 1, seemed scheduled, but Aryna Sabalenka decided otherwise. A monster of power, she was able to exploit the decline of the Polish woman who confessed her exhaustion after an exceptional season marked by 8 titles including 2 Grand Slams (Roland-Garros and US Open). Also semi-finalist at the US Open and prevented from playing at Wimbledon because of her nationality, the Belarusian has not won a title this year but has been consistent enough to be part of the final cast. She is above all a player of (big) shots. On paper, the poster therefore looks well balanced and indecisive.

Face to face

• It’s perfect equality between the two players, who have two victories each in their previous duels on the circuit.
• They have always faced each other on hard, Aryna Sabalenka had won the first two meetings in Cincinnati (6-4, 3-6, 7-5) and Beijing (5-7, 7-6, 6-0) in 2018, this which is starting to date.
• Caroline Garcia therefore has the wind in her sails since she won the next two in Zhuhaï (6-4, 6-4) still four years ago, but especially in the semi-finals of Cincinnati (6-2 , 4-6, 6-1) only three months ago.

Their journey

Caroline Garcia

1st group match: defeats Cori Gauff [E-U/N.4] 6-4, 6-3
2nd group match: is beaten by Iga Swiatek [POL/N.1] 6-3, 6-2
3rd pool match: defeats Daria Kasatkina [RUS/N.8] 4-6, 6-1, 7-6(5)
1/2 final: defeats Maria Sakkari [GRE/N.5] 6-3, 6-2

Aryna Sabalenka

1st pool match: defeats Ons Jabeur [TUN/N.2] 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-5
2nd group match: is beaten by Maria Sakkari [GRE/N.5] 6-2, 6-4
3rd group match: defeats Jessica Pegula [E-U/N.3] 6-3, 7-5
1/2 final: defeats Iga Swiatek [POL/N.1] 6-2, 2-6, 6-1

They said

Caroline Garcia:I’m five years older than last time, and maybe those five years have made me wiser. I’m trying to learn from everything, I’ve had some tough injuries for the past two years. I have a great team behind me, who support me, who have been positive when I was not. It’s a great year, a lot of good things have happened and I didn’t think it would be..”

Aryna Sabalenka: “I think there have been enough miracles this year for me (she considered that her presence at the Masters was one, editor’s note), it’s time to work hard. This season, I have become more of a warrior. I was fighting against myself, which is a completely different fight, and I learned a lot from that. Against Iga (Swiatek), I was really calm on the court. I wanted to make her work and this state of mind allowed me to win.”

Three stats to keep in mind

3. Caroline Garcia is the third Frenchwoman to play a Masters final in the history of women’s tennis, after Mary Pierce and Amélie Mauresmo. The last named is the only Blue to have won the trophy by beating… Mary Pierce in the final. This one also stumbled on the last step in 1997.

425. This is the number of double faults committed by Aryna Sabalenka this season (including 27 in this Masters), or 136 more than her runner-up in this specific (and not very glorious) ranking, Ekaterina Alexandrova. She also hit 245 aces, which places her 7th in this other hierarchy dominated by… Caroline Garcia and her 383 aces in 2022. This difference in quality of service could be one of the keys to this final.

4. This is the classification in which Caroline Garcia will finish this season in the event of a victory. She would thus equal the best mark of her career reached on September 10, 2018, with the prospect of doing better at the start of 2023 given the low number of points she will have to defend. In the meantime, she is guaranteed to finish the season in the Top 5, which had not happened to a Frenchwoman for 16 years.

Our opinion

If Iga Swiatek had been present at the meeting, she would have been the favorite anyway, regardless of her opponent in the final of this Women’s Masters. But that’s not the case, which makes this final match of the year on the WTA Tour all the more open. Titled three times this year while Aryna Sabalenka has not won the slightest trophy, Caroline Garcia is however (perhaps) more armed in the approach to these very special meetings.

Because it will above all be a question of managing her emotions well: neither the French nor the Belarusian have played in a final of this magnitude in the past. It will therefore be necessary to disregard the context as much as possible to be able to best express your tennis. This is all the more true for these two risk-taking players. With his ultra-offensive game, Garcia does not have much room for error and when his plan A, which is now a strong playing identity, does not work, it is difficult for him to get out of it, like his semi-final of the US Open against Ons Jabeur had shown it.

The observation is the same for Sabalenka whose moments of feverishness can take on uncontrollable proportions in the service in particular, in the form of repeated double faults. Still, having beaten Swiatek in the semi-finals could allow him to approach this final with maximum confidence. It is therefore difficult to give a clear advantage to one or the other even if Garcia, who beat the Belarusian in Cincinnati a few months ago, has a (small) head start.

Our prediction: Caroline Garcia in three sets