Wrestling in the Union: Söders power games

The more Laschet’s authority in the Union dwindles, the stronger the CSU boss Söder. Swipes against the unlucky person reinforce the impression. What is Söder up to? Is it really about covenant power?

CSU boss Markus Söder knows what is proper. That is why, in his opinion, it is also important to respect an election result. For him, this includes “also of style” to congratulate the SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz on his election success, he said on Tuesday afternoon shortly before the Union parliamentary group meeting. Quite as if it didn’t take him almost two days to bring what has been clear since late Sunday evening: The SPD with Chancellor candidate Scholz is the strongest force in Germany.

Söder’s congratulations were immediately understood for what they were: a tip against CDU boss and Union chancellor candidate Armin Laschet. Because Scholz had not yet congratulated him at this point. Söder, a born service politician who knows what is politically proper. And the new moral authority of the Union had yet another brutality towards Laschet in store: “The best chances of becoming Chancellor are currently Olaf Scholz. Definitely.”

In doing so, Söder has, in a sense, done a favor for those in the CDU who also think that way, but have so far not been able to say so openly out of loyalty to their hapless chairman Laschet. He has taken on the role of telling unpleasant truths: the Union lost the election.

Vague hope in Jamaica

This does not mean that it is entirely out of the game of forming a government. Laschet and his followers continue to cling to the vague hope of Jamaica. One is ready, it said from the federal executive committee and presidium of the CDU. Presumably on Sunday evening there will be an initial exploratory discussion with the FDP. A conversation between the Union and the Greens could then follow at the beginning of next week.

The CSU also wants to talk to the Greens and the FDP about a possible government alliance. But there still seems to be no plan for the content. Time is running against the Union and thus also against Laschet.

The CSU stands for order

Now Söder is not a one-man demolition company. He has assistants in dismantling Laschet’s internal party authority, such as CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt. When he declares with a view to the organization of the Union faction that the CSU wants “order”, then the signal is clear: In this context, Söder and the CSU stand for order. Conversely, this means: Laschet is chaos embodied.

Laschet has to be thrown off the throne, but Söder has done the preparatory work. Unlike in the spring, when the candidate for chancellor was at stake, Söder has not yet offered to take Laschet’s place as negotiator. It is also unclear whether he really wants it seriously, especially since it would not solve the CDU’s internal problems.

Is Söder actually about the Bayern election?

Perhaps Söder has more of an eye on his own political survival in Bavaria anyway. The CSU boss has to win the state elections in Bavaria in two years. If the union in the federal government went into opposition, the CSU in Bavaria could campaign against the SPD-led government of Scholz. In fact, the 2023 state elections are likely to be the all-important milestone for Söder. Especially since the CSU’s performance in the federal elections was rather poor, even if the losses were not as high as those of the CDU.