Long opposed to the principle of a European anti-missile shield, Emmanuel Macron finally said, on April 26, that he was willing to study the relevance of the “European Sky Shield” project desired by the Germans. However, he added immediately that he was not “sure” that this “totally protects” against Russia.
What would this project consist of? Would it be effective in countering possible Russian missile attacks? 20 minutes make the point.
What is this “European Sky Shield Initiative” (ESSI), or “sky shield”?
This is a joint anti-aircraft defense project divided into three main stages: the German Iris-T system for short and medium range (less than 40 km), the American Patriot PAC-3 (60 km) for long scope, and the Arrow 3 Israeli developed to intercept ballistic missiles at exoatmospheric altitudes (more than 100 kilometers) and with a range of up to 2,400 kilometers. It was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who launched this initiative in August 2022, a few months after the start of the war in Ukraine. “No European state can alone ensure the effective defense of its airspace in the face of new dangers,” the Chancellor argued at the time.
Like Israel’s Iron Dome, the idea would be to provide Europe with a “European Sky Shield” – bringing together different countries which would be based on a principle of group purchase of systems and munitions, in order to reduce costs.
Who would participate in this initiative?
On October 13, 2022, fifteen countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Romania, United Kingdom, Slovakia and Slovenia) signed a declaration of intent to joint purchase of anti-aircraft systems. There are now around twenty who have expressed their interest. Among the signatories, many states located on the eastern flank of the continent, worried about a possible spillover of the war between Russia and Ukraine. France, like Spain, Portugal and Italy, on the other hand, have decided to stay behind.
Why is France critical?
The only nuclear power within the European Union, France also has its own ground-to-air defense system, the Mamba, developed for several years with Italy. Among the points of friction on the ESSI project, “prior consultation within NATO, in particular with the European nuclear countries [le Royaume-Uni], was it conducted? » asked on February 5, via an editorial in The gallery, the former chief of staff of the Air Force, General Jean-Paul Paloméros, and the former senior manager of EADS (now Airbus) Denis Verret. “It is indeed a question of ensuring the coherence of the development of the conventional capabilities envisaged with nuclear deterrence. »
“The non-existent place [dans le projet ESSI] European solutions, although numerous and effective in all segments of ground-air defense, against the promotion of American and Israeli products, is deplorable”, underlined for their part the deputies Natalia Pouzyreff (Renaissance) and Jean-Louis Thiériot (LR) in October 2022, in an information report on ground-air defense in France and Europe.
Asked by 20 minutesLéo Péria Peigné, weapons researcher – defense industry at Ifri (French Institute of International Relations), recognizes that France and Italy, via the Eurosam consortium, “have some assets to showcase, such as the Mamba ground-to-air defense system”. But he emphasizes that the latter is considered by Berlin “as a potential duplicate with the Iris-T and the Patriot, two systems which have proven themselves in Ukraine, and whose missiles, especially for the Patriot, have been produced on a large scale. quantity. »
Léo Péria Peigné believes above all that “the anti-missile shield project is a project that France and others in Europe have been discussing for several years, and that the Germans have brought to fruition effectively… France showed its mood at the announcement of the project, considering that it did not take into account European weapon systems other than German, and for a time considered proposing an alternative plan… Time to think about it, the number of partners around the ESSI is increased to twenty-two in two years. »
Would this shield really be effective in protecting Europe?
On April 26, in his speech on Europe, Emmanuel Macron seemed to take a step towards Germany, saying he was willing to study the relevance of a European “anti-missile shield”. He added that he was not “sure” that this “totally protects” against Russia and called for strategic thinking in Europe which also includes “nuclear deterrence”.
The ESSI “is a coherent project, provided that there are enough launchers and ammunition, as well as coordination for detection”, analyzes for his part Léo Péria Peigné, recalling that “the war in Ukraine has when even showed our vulnerability from this point of view. » “The response that ESSI can provide is still partial, continues the researcher, because it is focused on high-end threats such as we could imagine before the war in Ukraine: cruise and ballistic missiles, aircraft combat, and relatively few answers concerning “small” threats [notamment les drones]. This will be part of the challenges. But in the meantime, France does not have much to offer that is a credible alternative in terms of timetable and capacity. »
The contested choice of the Arrow 3 missile
Proposing the Arrow 3 for exoatmospheric defense, as part of the “shield”, “is particularly incoherent”, underlines the parliamentary report of October 18, 2022. “This efficient system does not respond to any current or developing threat in the environment strategy of Germany – and of Europe –, having been designed by and for Israel in response to a specific threat. » The Arrow 3 would also not be in compliance with the doctrine defined by NATO.
“The Germans insisted on taking systems that already exist, not projects that will only be operational in ten years,” points out Léo Péria Peigné. On the market [européen], there is no proven alternative to the Arrow 3. It responds to the challenges of exoatmospheric ballistic vectors, a threat that already exists and will continue to exist tomorrow. »