Experts in various sectors consider misinformation based on artificially generated images and videos to be the biggest risk this year. This is what the current world risk report says, which is pessimistic.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has a bleak view: of almost 1,500 experts and risk analysts from business, politics and society surveyed on behalf of the WEF, a good third believe a global catastrophe is likely in the next two years. They expect two thirds within ten years – whatever the horror scenario may look like.
The risks are diverse: climate change, conflicts, shifts in the global balance of power, social division, social inequality, artificial intelligence. The world’s ability to adapt is reaching its limits, according to a key message from the World Risk Report.
World Risk Report
The world risk report and a ranking list called the world risk index are published annually by the Alliance for Development Helps and the Institute for Peacekeeping Law and International Humanitarian Law at the Ruhr University Bochum (IFHV). The Alliance Development Helps is an association that includes, among others, church aid organizations such as Bread for the World, Kindernothilfe, Misereor and the Welthungerhilfe organization.
Worry about fake news in elections
“The report identifies misinformation and disinformation as the biggest risk for the next two years, followed by extreme weather events, social polarization and armed conflict,” says Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum.
AI-generated fake news and cyberattacks are the immediate top risk worldwide – especially with a view to the upcoming elections in several large countries such as the USA, Great Britain and India. With artificial intelligence, misinformation and deepfake videos could be produced and spread quickly – and thus have a decisive influence on elections, explains Carolina Klint from the risk consulting firm Marsh McLennan: They could “lead to the legitimacy of elected governments being questioned, which in turn threatens democratic processes and could lead to further social polarization, riots, strikes or even domestic violence.”
An outlook is not a prediction
In the longer term – over the next ten years – global risk analysts are dominated by concerns about the consequences of climate change: extreme weather, changes to earth systems, loss of biological diversity, scarcity of natural resources.
“It’s like looking into a big bowl of spaghetti: everything is connected. If you pull together, everything starts moving, and it’s not easy to figure out where to start to untangle this mess,” describes it sounds.
As humans, we are wired to only see what is right in front of us, but we need to find a better way to balance short-term risk considerations with longer-term ones.
Saadia Zahidi’s statement from the World Economic Forum seemed almost desperate: The new risk report was a very gloomy outlook, but not a fixed prediction for the future. Because what it looks like is entirely in our hands.
Kathrin Hondl, ARD Geneva, tagesschau, January 10, 2024 2:01 p.m