What if the Tour of Flanders-Paris-Roubaix double was due to an appointment with the dentist? Asked about a potential surprise presence on the French cobblestones on Sunday after the cycling lesson given on the Ronde, Tadej Pogacar dismissed the hypothesis on the pretext of a medical appointment. Humor. Even so, one would be tempted to believe that the leader of UAE would have more difficulty finding a new slot on the Slovenian Doctolib than chasing a group of tough guys near Arenberg.
It won’t be for 2023. Mathieu van der Poel, half amused, half disgusted at having been killed in Old Quaremont, and who urged Pogi to focus on stage races to leave crumbs for humans, will therefore see his wish granted on Paris-Roubaix. He will “only” have Wout van Aert and the Jumbo to manage.
The two great rivals would be wrong not to seize once and for all the opportunity to win this monument as long as the big bad wolf is not interested in it. The hell of the North “appears on [la] list” by Tadej Pogacar, with a few kilos to take because “the cobblestones of Roubaix are very different from the cobblestones of Flanders”. Strong argument? Not necessarily. Many think the double winner of the Tour de France (66kg) capable of winning in the suburbs of Lille without having to gain three tons of muscle.
Thierry Gouvenou, race director: “I think he can largely compensate for his lack of weight with his exceptional physical qualities and his will. Bernard Hinault was not very heavy either and he won Paris-Roubaix”.
Bert de Backer, former runner passed by B&B Hotels, 11th and 12th in Paris-Roubaix in 2014 and 2015: “With Tadej, the rules change. He has a chance of winning it, even without gaining weight. And then gaining weight ok, but only on the condition that there is a power gain. In Roubaix, if you want to be bigger, heavier, it’s for power. Gaining extra pounds that will be useless is worse than anything. So even with his weight and the phenomenal power he is already capable of developing, he would have his chances. »
The hitherto non-existent outsiders
On Paris-Roubaix, you never have more than “your chances”. Since the end of the hegemony of the Boonen-Cancellara tandem, whose last victory dates from 2013, the French classic has offered a different winner per edition. And a lot of surprises, the biggest being the success of Mathew Hayman in 2016. Nothing new in that, the unpredictable hell of the North, we know it, it’s even a horse chestnut tree. Except that this particularity makes it more special than ever at a time when the Big 3 cannibalizes the big one-day races and cultivates a feeling of helplessness among the outsiders, pushing Mads Pedersen, Stefan Kung or Neilson Powless to anticipate blows like vulgar teammates, like the grouped attack of Molenberg. Or the DSM team, which has improvised a snail operation in the middle of the mountain for the sole purpose of pissing off Van der Poel. Would Mario Kart cycling be their last hope?
Unfortunately for them, this kind of attack is the only solution, analyzes Frédéric Moncassin, three times top 10 in Paris-Roubaix. Currently, three riders dominate the peloton, are announced as big as a house and always respond. Of the 20 teams, 17 cannot win. Very good riders have however focused their season on this, they trained in the hope of winning the Ronde or Paris-Roubaix. But there are two, sometimes three runners when Pogacar is there, who are practically unbeatable. So the teams are implementing different strategies against these two riders, there is no choice. »
On the road to Roubaix, things are different. The first major reason is the bad luck/puncture/crash factor, which is much higher than elsewhere. If Wout van Aert could lose on a fall in Flanders, the field of possible trouble widens even more on the Queen of the classics. Moncassin draws up a scenario among many others: “a flat tire doesn’t seem like much. But if it happens in the first cobblestone sector, the guy will have help a little far away, he will get back into the cars. In cars, he will have to roll on the edges, and on the edges he risks puncturing or falling behind a fall and therefore being slowed down… Once you have taken the bad puncture or the bad fall, the race becomes less easy. »
In Roubaix, “just follow the best” to have a chance
The other is that as surprising as it may seem, it is easier for runners with a lack of power to survive in the strong group on the cobbles than in the Flanders mountains. “Me, I was never with the great riders on the classics, except in Roubaix”, thus illustrates Bert de Backer.
Like him, many have managed to develop a science of cobblestone racing to compensate for shortcomings and hang on to the right car. The old B&B, still. “It’s hard to explain, but you have to find the route that makes you waste the least energy. You have to try to do everything in slow motion. For example, it’s better to come into a corner slowly and accelerate out of it than to brake hard at the last second, because it often doesn’t react the way you want it to. In Roubaix, it’s like that. Just be there, don’t rub and follow the best. As long as you’re behind the best, you can believe it. And as long as a Van Aert or VDP takes over – so the wind in the face – on the way, there is a way to surprise them on the velodrome (remember Colbrelli 2021).
Finally, we must never underestimate Mathieu and Wout’s annoying tendency to bury themselves alone. In a scenario without teammates to run over an attacker, there are countless times when the two rivals have lost each other by refusing to work for the other. Amusing theory from Bert de Backer: Tadej Pogacar, who also gets along very well with grandson Poulidor, would be the “link between the two men. »
On the Round, the Big 3 effectively collaborated behind the counter-attackers to stifle the revolt. “On the other hand, when Van Aert and Van der Poel find themselves alone, it’s different. They have such a long history together. They’ve been racing against each other for years. So maybe they count pedal strokes more. Pogi would therefore be Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel’s best chance and the outsiders’ worst nightmare. If the theory is true, they can definitely thank the UAE leader’s dentist.