Since July, the price of gasoline has started to rise again. Take a closer look: last week, at the pump, a liter of diesel was on average at 1.8587 euros, SP95 at 1.9570 euros, and a liter of SP98 was close to 2 euros, at 1.9990, according to the data published by the Ministry of Energy Transition.
For the French, already faced with inflation, this is another cold shower. So how high can prices go? We answer it with Philippe Charlez, energy expert at the Sapiens Institute in Paris.
Prices at the pump are going back up, was this expected?
It’s true that we are approaching the 2 euro mark, but in reality, fuel was already at a high level at the start of the year.
Consumers wrongly think that the price of gasoline is more expensive today because they previously benefited from certain aid. For example, there was the discount of 20 cents per liter granted by TotalEnergies [de septembre à novembre 2022, puis de 10 centimes en décembre 2022]. Or even state compensation [100 euros accordés début 2023 pour les 10 millions de travailleurs les plus modestes].
How can we explain the current increase?
Prices are rising in particular because the price of a barrel of oil is rising, it has gone from 75 dollars on average to 85 dollars in a few weeks.
Added to this are refining costs and a lack of investment in refineries globally. However, it must be remembered that crude oil in itself is of no use, it is only useful once transformed into refined products.
The war in Ukraine also comes into play. Our commercial relations with Russia allowed Europe, not so long ago, to obtain supplies of petroleum products. It’s more complicated today. Obviously, prices are soaring.
Will prices rise further in the weeks, months and years to come?
It’s complicated to answer, because it depends on international factors that we cannot control. No indicator shows that they will fall, and only a major political event could tip the scales.
TotalEnergies has committed not to exceed 1.99 euros per liter on gasoline and diesel, until December 31, 2023. However, it is a major player, which represents 40% of oil distribution in France. The competition cannot therefore sell at 2.30 euros, because they would lose all their markets. I can’t imagine the prices going beyond that.