Before negotiations with the USA and NATO, the Russian president is keeping up the pressure on the West. Army spokesmen said on Saturday that more than 10,000 soldiers would return to their permanent bases after exercises from the Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian border regions of Rostov and Kuban. At the same time, however, the Russian Black Sea Fleet operating from Crimea reported extensive maneuvers, during which the storming of enemy coastlines by marine infantry was rehearsed – a possible variant for a Russian attack on Ukraine.
On Sunday, President Putin was asked on a television program what military response he would give if the US and NATO did not accept his request for a written waiver of membership in NATO for Ukraine and other guarantees such as a ban on armament by the Ukrainian military. The answer could “be very different” and “depends on the suggestions our military experts make to me,” said Putin.
The US and Russia will negotiate the Russian demands from January. According to Putin, the negotiators have already been chosen. Last Wednesday, the chairman of the US general staff, Mark Milley, and his Russian colleague Valery Gerasimov spoke on the phone. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also invited Moscow to a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council on January 12th.
Putin did not want to rule out an attack
Of course, it is unclear what the outcome of the talks will be: Putin’s call for a written waiver of Ukraine’s membership in NATO has already been rejected by NATO and the US administration. For his part, Putin expressly did not want to rule out an attack on Ukraine in a press conference on December 23, and did not want to give any guarantee. Instead, Putin emphasized to the West: “You have to give us guarantees – you! Immediately, now!”
The question is whether Putin has already drawn up a scenario for the ultimate failure of his demands – or whether he has made unacceptable demands from the outset to justify an attack that has already been decided. There are no details of any of the soldiers who are said to have withdrawn more than 10,000. US analysts concluded that Russia was preparing a force of 175,000 soldiers for a possible attack. According to the Ukrainian National Security Secretary Olexej Danilov, Moscow has deployed almost 122,000 soldiers in a 200-kilometer-deep strip along the Ukrainian border. More than 20,000 soldiers were standing ready in the subsequent 200-kilometer zone, according to Danilow on December 22nd.
Meanwhile, the US is investigating how Ukraine’s defense readiness can be increased. The Pentagon recently sent a team to Ukraine to investigate air defense needs. Robert Lee of King’s College London said that New York Times, In the event of an attack, Russian missiles could destroy a large part of the Ukrainian army in the east of the country “within the first 30 or 40 minutes”.