Fuel prices have fallen slightly. The ADAC speaks of a long overdue movement. But a look at the price of oil shows that diesel and premium petrol could soon become more expensive again.
For weeks, fuel prices at gas stations seemed to know only one direction. But now there are signs of a turnaround: A liter of Super E10 costs 1.874 euros on average nationwide – a drop of one cent compared to the previous week. This is the result of a current ADAC evaluation.
According to this, diesel also costs less on average: drivers currently have to pay 1.786 euros for a liter, which is 1.1 cents less than a week ago. The end of the summer holidays may also have played a role in almost all federal states. In any case, the ADAC described this development as long overdue, the price level at the gas stations had been significantly inflated for months. The automobile club therefore sees great potential for further price reductions.
Crude oil more expensive than it has been since November
But a look at the latest developments on the oil market shows that the current drop in fuel prices is probably a phenomenon with a very limited half-life. Finally, crude oil prices hit their highest level in ten months yesterday. The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent rose to as much as $91.15 per barrel, exceeding the $90 mark for the first time since November. Midweek oil prices are hovering near their 10-month highs, with Brent trading just under $90.
Saudi Arabia and Russia were responsible for the price jump. The two leading countries in the OPEC+ oil cartel had announced that they would extend their supply cuts by a further three months until the end of the year. So far, the market had only expected an extension of one month.
It’s up to China now
The supply side therefore speaks very clearly for further increases in oil prices, since the production cuts by the OPEC countries in the course of the year to date have been the main reason for the rising prices. But the big question remains: How will the demand for the raw material develop? Most recently, China, one of the countries with the largest oil consumption, has issued rather subdued economic reports.
Sentiment among Chinese service providers fell to its lowest level in eight months in August. China’s political leadership has been fighting the weak economy for some time with numerous aids, trying among other things to stabilize the troubled real estate market. Should she be successful in doing so, this would speak in favor of further rising oil prices.
Iran is back in the oil market
However, Iran also plays a not unimportant role in future oil and fuel prices. Despite the production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC oil production actually rose in August – by 220,000 to 27.56 million barrels per day.
The main reason for this was Iran, which increased its production by 200,000 to 3.1 million barrels per day – the highest level since the reintroduction of US oil sanctions in autumn 2018. Apparently Iran is getting better and better at circumventing the existing sanctions. Iran is thus torpedoing Saudi Arabia’s plans to drive up oil prices with production cuts.
With information from Angela Göpfert, ARD financial editors.