A reassuring base
As winter 2023-2024 approaches, the situation seems quite reassuring. And for good reason, it is estimated that in France, winter temperatures will be 1° higher on average than seasonal norms. This means that heating needs should be lower this winter. Let us add to this prospect of a mild winter for the second year in a row the fact that gas stocks in Europe should be full or almost full by the time the gas winter begins.
These two factors mean that the specter of shortage takes a little distance and that the pressure on supply will be relieved. As a model, it is possible to rely on last year where the situation was quite similar. Stocks were also full, the winter was quite mild and, at the end of winter, Europe still had 55% of its reserves of natural gas.
Significant gas stocks
Managers of gas transport networks (GRTgaz) announce a high level of reserves gas for this winter. This satisfactory outcome is linked to a new supply policy: France has chosen to diversify your sources of gas supply whether it arrives by gas pipelines or by LNG tankers:
- A significant part of the gas is supplied by Norway.
- Gas imports from Algeria are constantly increasing.
- Azerbaijan plans to double its exports by 2027.
- Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by LNG tankers increased by 70%. This gas comes mainly from the United States, but also from Qatar, Egypt, Mozambique, etc.
All these various sources of supply should make it possible to compensate for the drop in Russian gas importswhich fell further during the 2nd quarter of the past year.
Uncertainties for 2024
France therefore seems to be able to get through the winter without difficulty as long asno exceptional event occurs. But as nothing is less certain, uncertainties remain for 2024.
Indeed, the situation in Israel could have consequences on supplies. In addition, the year 2024 will be marked by elections presidential elections in the United States and in the event of a victory for the Republican Party, special attention will be necessary, because the situation could still change.
However, the solution of diversifying supply sources, as explained previously, could allow France to benefit from sufficient supply to overcome the various eventualities that could emerge in this complex and difficult geopolitical context.
Points to watch out for
Geopolitical risks are real, but, for the moment, they remain difficult to quantify. Indeed, gas pipeline supplies fell in 2022 at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Thus, the events that may occur could cause a significant reaction, among other things on prices.
You should know that part of European supplies always come from Russia via gas pipelines and passing through Ukraine. So, if this connection were to be affected by the ongoing conflict, it would have an immediate impact on the price of natural gas.
Added to this is the recent conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas terrorists, which could cause a regional conflict causingsignificant repercussions on natural gas exports via the Suez Canal.