analysis
middle East
Will Joe Biden achieve a breakthrough for peace?
Last honor for the killed US soldiers: President Biden at Dover Air Force Base in the state of Delaware
© UPI/laif
The US President is pursuing an ambitious peace plan for the Middle East. But it is risky. What is it about and who are the most important players?
While Joe Biden stood stone-faced a few days ago at the coffins of three US soldiers killed in Jordan and then sent long-range bombers to the Middle East, his chief diplomat Antony Blinken was preparing for his fifth Middle East mission since the beginning of the Gaza crisis. It could be the most consequential. Biden’s plan, which his foreign minister is expected to implement this week in Riyadh, Doha, Cairo, Jerusalem and Ramallah, is extremely ambitious.
At its core, it’s about a kind of ring exchange for peace, with two central players besides the USA: one is Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, or MBS for short. The prince is demanding US security guarantees for his country as well as support for a civilian nuclear program including the ability to enrich uranium in his own country. In return, it is said, he would be willing to enter into a pact with Israel. However, MBS can only support such an approach in domestic policy if the Israeli government agrees to concrete steps to create a Palestinian state and ends the war in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s power depends on radical coalition partners
The second key man for Biden’s plan, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, known as Bibi, has been working towards normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia for years. But in the current situation he can hardly accept the Saudis’ conditions. His power depends on radical coalition partners who want to overthrow him if he makes concessions to the Palestinians. He also fears the wrath of the people because of the state’s failure under his leadership on October 7, when the army and secret services were surprised by Hamas’ attack from Gaza and the massacres that followed, leaving citizens in the towns along the Gaza Strip almost defenseless against the terrorists.
Joe Biden himself has two major goals in mind in the Middle East in the US election year: a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. And the containment of the regime in Iran. He knows: Nothing would be more effective against Tehran’s aggressive pursuit of hegemony than a reliable Riyadh-Jerusalem axis. And he has recognized that Israel militarily and Netanyahu personally are heading for a dead end in Gaza. The way out that Biden could offer Bibi: an honorable place in the history book instead of a demise in disgrace.
A breakthrough to peace is much more complicated today
The 1970s is often used as a historical parallel, when Netanyahu’s predecessor Menachem Begin, like Bibi, a member of the right-wing Likud party, concluded a peace treaty with the then arch-enemy Egypt five years after the surprise attack on Israel on Yom Kippur, which still holds today. Then as now, American diplomacy was a crucial factor. The recently deceased Henry Kissinger urged the hesitant Begin to rethink his approach. Now his successor Antony Blinken is expected to play this role.
But the risks of failure of today’s US peace initiative are far greater than they were 50 years ago. At that time, states were negotiating with each other. The American mediators were able to speak directly to everyone involved and, as needed, build pressure or help overcome negotiation hurdles with their own guarantees. For example, by promising Jerusalem cheap energy supplies from the USA in order to persuade it to return the occupied Sinai Peninsula to Egypt, including the gas fields there that Israel had developed since the beginning of the Sinai occupation in 1967. Peace was achieved because everyone involved was ultimately convinced that it was in their interests. Nothing has changed since then. Also because the USA has been supporting Israel and Egypt with lavish payments every year since then.
The starting point for a breakthrough to peace is much more complicated today. Not just because Prime Minister Netanyahu is a declared opponent of a two-state solution. But also because there are a whole range of non-state actors who are more interested in a continuation of the conflict with Israel than in peace: from Hamas in the Gaza Strip to the Lebanese Hezbollah to the Yemeni Houthis and the Militias in Iraq and Syria who have attacked the US soldiers stationed there and their allies dozens of times with drones and other equipment for months.
The risk of escalation remains high
America can only negotiate with these militias indirectly through intermediaries such as the Qataris or the governments in Beirut and Baghdad. Which makes balancing interests with them even more difficult than between hostile states. This is shown, for example, by the current negotiations about the release of the remaining Hamas hostages or about an end to the extremely dangerous skirmishes between Hezbollah and the Israeli army on Israel’s northern border. The alternative is air strikes like those that have been taking place in Yemen for weeks and now also in Iraq and Syria. They drive up the price that the militias pay for their disruptive fire. However, this alone cannot stabilize the situation. And: The risk of escalation – even an unwanted one – remains high. Mutually.
Deal between Hamas and Israel
Between fear and relief: This is how the hostages were received on their return
The Iranian leadership also knows this, supporting the militias as proxies to undermine America’s peace plans without being held accountable for it. Recently, prominent voices in Washington have called for the US to also attack targets in Iran in order to hold the regime there accountable for the attacks by its proxies. Joe Biden will try to avoid this; he wants peace, not a new conflict with the regional power Iran. Nevertheless, the demands of the Iran hawks in Congress could benefit him, because Tehran fears nothing more than a direct conflict with the USA, which could endanger the existence of the Islamic Republic regime. Iran’s Supreme Leader, the elderly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has little else in common with Bibi Netanyahu. But he also probably has his place in the history book in mind. He would rather not be remembered as someone who led his country into a catastrophic conflict with the superpower USA.
Time is running out for Joe Biden
What Joe Biden needs are concrete successes, first steps towards the big solution – and soon. He only has weeks, or at most a few months, left. A deal between Israel and Hamas to free the remaining 136 hostages in the Gaza Strip would probably have to be at the beginning of the process. His foreign minister should enforce this. But the current reports following Antony Blinken’s first meeting in the Middle East raise doubts as to whether even this initial step will be successful.
Joe Biden is nevertheless continuing to pursue his daring peace strategy. The alternatives are even riskier. Not just for the Middle East, but for the entire world.