Tanning session on the beach in Nice, February 21, 2021. – AFP
- With less than 3,000 patients in intensive care and more than 25 million French people vaccinated with a first dose, the health situation has improved in recent days.
- According to Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur and member of the Scientific Council, “the next two weeks are crucial” to spend a “quiet summer”.
- Barrier gestures and vaccination… The professor calls on the French to continue their efforts to consolidate the decline.
The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care units is decreasing, that of French vaccinated on the rise, a semblance of freedom found with deconfinement … In recent days, the health situation linked to the coronavirus epidemic seems to be improving. But for Professor Arnaud Fontanet, member of the Scientific Council, the next two weeks will be decisive for the future.
If the news is rather good, a few weeks before the start of the school holidays, Arnaud Fontanet called the French, this Sunday in an interview with JDD, to continue efforts to consolidate the decline, believing that “the next fortnight are crucial” to spend a “quiet summer”.
Continue with barrier gestures
Hold on for another ten days. This is the request of Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur, to be able to spend a “quiet summer”. It relies on models published on May 22 : “What the Institut Pasteur scenarios show is that if the decline continues until June 9, the next stage in the lifting of restrictions, we will have a quiet summer. “If the end of wearing a mask outdoors is fast approaching, the researcher believes that barrier gestures must be continued to continue to lower the numbers of the epidemic:” All small efforts – mask, barrier gestures or distancing physical – can have big effects on the contaminations curve. During this period of reflux, the gain is maximum! », He explained to the JDD.
For Michaël Rochoy, general practitioner, researcher in epidemiology and member of the “On the side of science” collective, these small gestures are the most important: “These are the ones that have the most impact on contamination. Admittedly, vaccination now concerns a large number, but the barrier gestures concern absolutely everyone, ”he explains to 20 minutes.
On Monday, during a trip to Val-de-Marne, the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, also asked the French, to “respect the progressiveness” of deconfinement, and “not to let our guard down”. Because if the figures are down, with less than 3,000 patients in intensive care on Sunday evening – a first since the end of January – 16,775 Covid patients are still hospitalized and 8,541 new contaminations have been recorded,
according to Public Health France.
Speed up vaccination
To continue to limit the circulation of the virus and continue the decline in hospital services, Arnaud Fontanet is also counting on the acceleration of the vaccination campaign. To date, 25,333,361 French people have received a dose, of which 11,875,362 are fully vaccinated, according to the Ministry of Health. “The objective of 30 million [de premières injections] mid-June is within our reach ”, declared Jean Castex, this Monday, when the vaccination campaign officially opens to all over 18 years. To do this, France, which received 12 million doses in April and 15 million in May, expects 27 million additional doses in June.
“Without massive vaccination, the epidemic could start again,” warned Arnaud Fontanet. “What matters is achieving immunity, either by letting people infect themselves or by vaccinating. We made our choice, underlines Michaël Rochoy for his part. Mass vaccination is our only chance to get out of the epidemic ”.
If the vaccination campaign is now open to all adults, the most fragile people remain the priority, recalled Jean Castex: this “should not distract us from the objective of seeking all our fellow citizens who remain the most vulnerable to the disease ”, elderly or with co-morbidities. “The campaign in nursing homes was certainly a success but, in this age group, vaccination has stagnated for a month without reaching 80% of first injections as for 70-79 years”, worried for his part, the epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur. For the youngest, vaccination will be open from June to 16-18 year olds. As for adolescents from 12 to 15 years old, the High Authority of Health must look into the question this week.
Fight against new variants
And if Arnaud Fontanet insists on the acceleration of the vaccination campaign, it is also because of the new variants which come to play the troubles of festivals. “If we manage to maintain the current rate of decline in infections and hospitalizations until June 9 while maintaining or increasing the rate of vaccination, we do not expect to observe this summer of significant resumption of the related epidemic to variant B.1.1.7 ”, explained the Institut Pasteur in its projections.
Because with these new variants, more transmissible, collective immunity is more difficult to achieve: “The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated to prevent the circulation of the virus is climbing: last year, it was estimated at nearly 70 %, against 90% today ”, underlines the epidemiologist. If the decline continues until June 9, the Pasteur Institute estimates that the reproduction rate of the virus will be “between 1.0 and 1.3, the latter value corresponding to the level measured during the summer of 2020”, where the French had lived (almost) normally.
“We will have a quiet summer, there is very little doubt about that. The figures are moving in the right direction, contamination is falling, people at risk are vaccinated. But that doesn’t mean the epidemic is over. We must not let our guard down, ”recalls Michaël Rochoy. For Arnaud Fontanet, this is an unprecedented phase of the epidemic, “with for the first time controlling the circulation of the virus thanks to restriction measures, and vaccination coverage” which is progressing. “Do not waste this chance to end it and deal the last blows to the virus to finally return to our life before,” he hammered.