The streets are congested, rent is getting more and more expensive, and if you want to go to a restaurant you can’t get a seat without a reservation. Most people know this feeling that the city is still getting more crowded. But is that really true? And what will it look like in 2040? Various statisticians in Munich and the Free State are thinking about this, which leads to surprisingly different results.
The Bavarian State Office for Statistics presented its forecasts for the future in February. It is worth looking at the current initial figures first. According to the Free State’s experts, 1.5125 million people lived in Munich as of December 31, 2022. The statisticians in Munich come to a significantly higher value, namely 1.5883 million. At first glance that doesn’t look like much, but the gap of almost 76,000 people is about as big as the entire city of Rosenheim. A similar picture will emerge in 2023.
The differences become even more striking when looking into the future. The population forecasts for 2040 already differ by more than 200,000 people. That would be roughly the whole of Regensburg and more than half of Rosenheim. The Free State will then see Munich with 1.59 million inhabitants, the city itself with 1.81 million euros.
What initially sounds like a numbers game has a serious background: politics and administration depend on the most accurate values possible in order to keep the city running. Currently and in the future. They have to decide how many schools they will build and how many daycare places they will create. How many cycle paths they need, how many buses and trains, how wide streets. And much more.
The Free State is based on the results of the census
In the city, people know these different numbers – and they plan with their own. After all, these are based on your own registration register. The Munich statisticians have developed several scenarios on this basis – including one that is closer to the Free State’s forecast. But the planning department says that this is not very likely.
The different forecasts are due to the different starting points. Because this number is extrapolated from. The Free State relies on the most recent census. According to the State Statistical Office, this is compared with the respective municipal registers. The focus is on births and deaths as well as immigration and emigration, the development of which is extrapolated according to certain quotas. The city does not consider the assumptions to be realistic, especially when it comes to incoming and outgoing people, and continues to assume so-called migration gains, i.e. a noticeable increase in the number of people from New Munich compared to people leaving the city. But all statisticians agree on one thing: Munich will continue to grow. In the end, the only question is how strong.