After the heat pump boom last year, demand for the devices has recently fallen dramatically. The target set by the government is likely to be clearly missed. What are the reasons?
The German plumbing and heating engineering trade is expecting a sharp decline in the installation of heat pumps this year. “If we’re lucky, we might manage between 180,000 and 200,000 devices,” said Michael Hilpert, President of the Central Association for Sanitary, Heating and Air Conditioning (ZVSHK), to the German Press Agency.
Government goal “illusory” according to industry
For comparison: in 2023, the industry said it installed well over 300,000 devices, more than ever before. At the “Heat Pump Summit” in November 2022, the federal government even announced the goal of 500,000 heat pumps from 2024. But this high number of desired devices is “illusory, even next year,” said the association president.
Many experts and politicians consider the heat pump ramp-up to be an important step towards sustainable heat supply. The devices, which are preferably powered by “green” electricity, should play an important role in achieving climate goals in the building sector.
Confused consumers
So why do customers shy away from installing heat pumps? The association sees the main reason as being great uncertainty among customers regarding the future of energy supply. Consumers therefore held back on investments.
“Customers say: Yes, what’s happening now in municipal heat planning? Is there a neighborhood solution coming? Is district heating coming? Is hydrogen coming?” says Hilpert. This is still completely uncertain in many municipalities. In addition, the future electricity price is unclear. Because of these questions, it is currently difficult for companies to advise customers.
In addition, consumer advocates have recently repeatedly called for financial support for low-income households in order to promote the ramp-up of heat pumps.
The industry is “still doing well”
The setback in the heat pump installation also dampens the business expectations of the SHK guilds. These are estimated to be much more pessimistic for the next three months than a year ago, said ZVSHK Managing Director Helmut Bramann. These were the results of the most recent spring survey, in which more than 2,300 companies took part.
“Both the bathroom business and the heating sector are receiving a clearly negative sentiment forecast,” explained Bramann. The customer service business, however, is viewed optimistically. Overall, the industry is “still doing well,” added association president Hilpert.
According to the survey, around 52 percent of companies stated that they were overloaded or at full capacity. A year ago this value was 67 percent. Only 36 percent of companies are affected by delivery bottlenecks. A year earlier, more than 85 percent complained about this. “The availability of goods is back to the level it was before the pandemic.”