Of course, the idea of a new Jamaica Pact in Schleswig-Holstein sounds interesting at first, even obvious. Three out of four people in the north are satisfied with the black-green-yellow alliance of CDU Prime Minister Daniel Günther, which was reflected in the total bill in the election on Sunday. This is currently Germany’s favorite government, the majority in the state parliament has been expanded. So why not just continue in the colors of the Caribbean island?
This is supported by the broad support from the electorate and the style that everyone involved praises. In fact, in 2017, the smart moderator Daniel Günther managed to bring together fundamentally opposing positions at the cabinet table during his transformation from conservative to progressive. At that time, Jamaica replaced the so-called coastal coalition, the union of the SPD, the Greens and the Danish-Frisian minority representation SSW. The Greens in particular proved to be flexible when they made the change.
victim of their own success
Since then, the CDU, Greens and FDP in Kiel have not always agreed, but they have at least officially enjoyed each other’s successes and avoided public disputes. People like that, especially in otherwise uncertain times. A nice contrast to the talked-up Jamaica attempt 2017 in the federal government and the flickering traffic light today.
Although harmony is calming, it can also have a soporific effect. The trio got on so well that their top candidates ended up dancing together on election night. Isn’t there a pleasantly sweet scent in the salty air?
Yes, but that shouldn’t be enough if a Jamaican is superfluous from now on. Your model became a victim of its own success. CDU Prime Minister Günther, who is now spoiled for choice, is particularly benefiting from this. He would like to continue with Jamaica and knows that it will be difficult for all friendship. The CDU is significantly stronger than before, the Greens are three times as strong as the weakened FDP – how is that supposed to work? The vaunted balance no longer exists.
Such an XXL alliance is not really healthy
Either the Greens or the FDP would be superfluous when voting for the CDU in the future. There is a model of this kind in Saxony-Anhalt, where the CDU brought the FDP into the team in addition to the SPD, although the SPD would have been enough. But Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff only secured this reinforcement because he distrusts MPs from his own party.
That is completely different with the CDU on the North and Baltic Seas. Daniel Günther’s parliamentary group stands together and from now on they only need one additional vote for a majority. Jamaica would have superior power in the state legislature. Such a very grand coalition would be even more unhealthy than a grand coalition.
Of course, when it comes to climate protection and transport, the CDU is closer to the FDP than the Greens. Black and yellow would be the classic. But with the Greens in Robert-Habeck-Land, which are now also very firmly rooted in the municipalities, Günther would remain more of the innovator, who may be drawn to the Chancellery in 2025. Also, unlike the FDP, the Greens are a potential competitor that he would not like to have as an opponent. As a threesome, the Greens would have to step back a lot to give the Liberals, who had been trimmed to size, space. And if you take a closer look at the election results in Schleswig-Holstein, you will see that Jamaica won less than Black-Green.